693 FXUS62 KILM 250248 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 948 PM EST Thu Nov 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... One more abnormally warm day before a cold front sweeps through and brings much colder temperatures for the weekend. A warming trend will develop next week ahead of another front. Widespread rain is expected ahead of the front during the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As of 945 PM Thursday...Biggest concern this period is coverage and magnitude of dense fog. Skies will be clear to partly cloudy through the night. Relatively high dewpoints are in place with virtually no wind at the surface and no evidence of nocturnal jetting. As the column cools, dewpoint depressions will be reached around and after midnight. Model soundings support the development of a pronounced surface inversion which will develop overnight and linger for a couple hours after sunrise. This strongly suggests moisture will be trapped at ground level leading to the development of at least areas of dense fog. A Dense Fog Advisory is certainly possible for widespread visibility of a quarter mile or less. It will be another night of above normal temps with lows in the lower to mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Thursday...The second short-wave that is forecast to cross the area should do so late Friday night. The 12 UTC GFS is slightly faster than the 12 UTC ECMWF. The moisture profile ahead of the front changes little with precipitable water values below 1 inch and concentrated below 700 millibars. Expect about a 30% chance of showers with little QPF with this system. Hopefully this will change as will be discussed in the long range forecast. After the frontal passage a cold northerly flow moves in late Saturday. Maximum temperatures are expected to be in the middle 70s on Friday, dropping into the lower 60s on Saturday. Low temperatures Friday night will be in the upper 40s, but with cold air advection following the cold frontal passage, will see lows in the middle 30s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Fast mid-level flow will gradually transition to one becoming more amplified late in the period. This allows cold high pressure to move offshore early next week followed by a warming trend through Wednesday. Sunday still on track to be a cold day despite abundant sunshine, with highs likely several degrees below climo. A subtle warming trend begins Monday as the high begins to shift offshore, but more pronounced warming develops Tuesday as a warm front lifts northward driving warm and moist advection into the Carolinas. Temps Wed-Thu will rise to well above climo once again. However, the as temps climb, sensible weather will deteriorate thanks to a cold front beneath a deep mid-level trough moving into the Appalachians. This front becomes aligned parallel to the mid-level flow downwind of the trough so longitudinal progression slows to a crawl Tue-Thu. As this occurs, deep gulf moisture flows NE and pieces of vort energy rotate NE along the front. This suggests the first widespread rainfall across the Carolinas in quite some time, with the heaviest rainfall locally expected Wed night and Thursday as the front finally pushes east beneath the NE ejecting shortwave. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 23Z...Light winds will likely decouple at times, especially inland, in a very weak pressure gradient. Dewpoint depressions will approach zero late tonight and conditions will become favorable for fog development. Light SW flow also favors fog at CRE. Generally light SSW flow will persist through Friday with surface high pressure offshore and a weak trough to the west. Extended outlook...MVFR conditions possible Friday night with scattered showers. Otherwise VFR expected through the period. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 945 PM Thursday...High pressure has moved well offshore and southwest to west winds will be light with speed generally below 10 KT. Seas will run between 1 and 2 feet. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Thursday...A cold front will sweep across the waters late Friday night, this will usher in an increase of Northwest winds. As the cold air advects over the water, wind speeds are expected to reach 15 to 20 knots on Saturday into Saturday night. With offshore flow through much of the period, seas are expected to begin on Friday at 1 to 2 feet, but increase to 3 to 4 feet with a few 5 footers from 10 to 20 miles off the coast on Saturday into Saturday night. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...High pressure moving overhead and then offshore will create a weak gradient initially, but this will tighten through the period ahead of a slowly advancing cold front. Winds Sunday through Monday aftn will be less than 10 kts while veering from North to SW, and then steadily increase through Tuesday to 15-20 kts. Residual 3-4 ft seas will start Sunday, but fall to 1- 2 ft most of Sunday and Monday. As the winds increase late Monday and Tuesday, seas will climb to 4-6 ft late in the period, aided by a SE swell and SW wind wave, and an SCA will likely be needed. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...DRH LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...CRM