670 
FXUS64 KCRP 152340 AAA
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
540 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016

.DISCUSSION...Update for 00z Aviation.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR xpctd for much of the TAF period. Very dry
atmospheric column should result in practically nil cloud cover
thru the period. Only flight concern is a period late
tonight/around sunrise when lower VSBYs may dvlp. However...given
significant dewpoint depressions this afternoon...feel that any
fog chances should be low to minimal /best chances will be at
KVCT/. If any fog does dvlp...it should quickly mix out by mid
mrng with mainly clear skies prevailing rest of Wed. Seabreeze
currently pushing W across KCRP followed by a period of SErly sfc
winds for a couple of hrs. Otherwise...weak/vrb sfc winds this
evening across the region becmg more Wrly by late in the night.
Overall Srly sfc flow around 10 kts xpctd to dvlp across the
region Wed aftn.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 312 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016/ 

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...

Boundary has pushed well offshore this afternoon with drier air
sinking into Texas. Dewpoints this after are in the 50s across the
region. The low dewpoints and clear skies will set us up for a
cool night with lows in the 50s for most locations and in the
lower 60s right along the coast. Patchy fog will be possible once
again in the morning, but would expect vis restrictions to be
minor for most locations. High pressure and warm temperatures
aloft will provide another very warm day on Wednesday. Expect
highs in the mid and upper 80s area wide. A few locations could
see 90 degree reading. While these will be close to record levels,
expect records to be just out of reach (CRP:92, VCT:90, LRD:93).
As onshore flow redevelops during the day Wednesday, shallow
moisture will work its way back inland increasing chances for fog
once again. 

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...

Deterministic NWP model output generally consistent with a strong
upper disturbance moving across the Rockies Wednesday/Thursday then
across the Plains Thursday Night/Friday. The bulk of the associated
upper forcing is expected to remain north of the CWA/MSA. GFS
deterministic suggest increasing moisture advecting from the Bay of
Campeche region across the CWA Thursday (in response to the
approaching upper system) with PWAT values increasing to around
normal Thursday over the CWA. Nevertheless...expect moisture
convergence/pooling of moisture to be sufficient for the generation
of convection along/near the front. GFS ensemble mean suggest a
FROPA acrs the CWA Friday afternoon. Expect SCA conditions over the
MSA Friday Night/Saturday in response to the front. Dry atmospheric
conditions expected Saturday/Sunday. The GFS ensemble mean suggest
the development of a quasi-zonal upper pattern by Monday suggestive
of increasing onshore flow over the CWA/MSA. Not yet confident that
sufficient moisture will arrive for precipitation/convection by
Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    58  88  64  84  69  /   0   0   0  10  10 
Victoria          55  87  61  84  67  /   0   0   0  10  10 
Laredo            58  89  61  86  66  /   0   0   0   0   0 
Alice             56  89  60  86  66  /   0   0   0  10  10 
Rockport          63  85  67  82  70  /   0   0   0  10  10 
Cotulla           55  89  57  85  65  /   0   0   0  10  10 
Kingsville        57  88  61  86  67  /   0   0   0  10  10 
Navy Corpus       61  84  68  81  72  /   0   0   0  10  10 

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

RH/79...AVIATION