670 FXUS64 KCRP 152340 AAA AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 540 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016 .DISCUSSION...Update for 00z Aviation. && .AVIATION...VFR xpctd for much of the TAF period. Very dry atmospheric column should result in practically nil cloud cover thru the period. Only flight concern is a period late tonight/around sunrise when lower VSBYs may dvlp. However...given significant dewpoint depressions this afternoon...feel that any fog chances should be low to minimal /best chances will be at KVCT/. If any fog does dvlp...it should quickly mix out by mid mrng with mainly clear skies prevailing rest of Wed. Seabreeze currently pushing W across KCRP followed by a period of SErly sfc winds for a couple of hrs. Otherwise...weak/vrb sfc winds this evening across the region becmg more Wrly by late in the night. Overall Srly sfc flow around 10 kts xpctd to dvlp across the region Wed aftn. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 312 PM CST Tue Nov 15 2016/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)... Boundary has pushed well offshore this afternoon with drier air sinking into Texas. Dewpoints this after are in the 50s across the region. The low dewpoints and clear skies will set us up for a cool night with lows in the 50s for most locations and in the lower 60s right along the coast. Patchy fog will be possible once again in the morning, but would expect vis restrictions to be minor for most locations. High pressure and warm temperatures aloft will provide another very warm day on Wednesday. Expect highs in the mid and upper 80s area wide. A few locations could see 90 degree reading. While these will be close to record levels, expect records to be just out of reach (CRP:92, VCT:90, LRD:93). As onshore flow redevelops during the day Wednesday, shallow moisture will work its way back inland increasing chances for fog once again. LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)... Deterministic NWP model output generally consistent with a strong upper disturbance moving across the Rockies Wednesday/Thursday then across the Plains Thursday Night/Friday. The bulk of the associated upper forcing is expected to remain north of the CWA/MSA. GFS deterministic suggest increasing moisture advecting from the Bay of Campeche region across the CWA Thursday (in response to the approaching upper system) with PWAT values increasing to around normal Thursday over the CWA. Nevertheless...expect moisture convergence/pooling of moisture to be sufficient for the generation of convection along/near the front. GFS ensemble mean suggest a FROPA acrs the CWA Friday afternoon. Expect SCA conditions over the MSA Friday Night/Saturday in response to the front. Dry atmospheric conditions expected Saturday/Sunday. The GFS ensemble mean suggest the development of a quasi-zonal upper pattern by Monday suggestive of increasing onshore flow over the CWA/MSA. Not yet confident that sufficient moisture will arrive for precipitation/convection by Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 58 88 64 84 69 / 0 0 0 10 10 Victoria 55 87 61 84 67 / 0 0 0 10 10 Laredo 58 89 61 86 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 Alice 56 89 60 86 66 / 0 0 0 10 10 Rockport 63 85 67 82 70 / 0 0 0 10 10 Cotulla 55 89 57 85 65 / 0 0 0 10 10 Kingsville 57 88 61 86 67 / 0 0 0 10 10 Navy Corpus 61 84 68 81 72 / 0 0 0 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ RH/79...AVIATION