067 
FXUS61 KRLX 060251
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1051 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front approaching tonight with increasing clouds and showers
before dawn and thunder during the afternoon hours Saturday. High
pressure Sunday. Warm front next Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1045 PM EDT Friday...

Already seeing some radar returns to our north...from near Dayton
OH ENE to north of Pittsburgh PA. Made some minor tweaks to winds
overnight and still massaging precipitation onset as frontal
boundary approaches. Otherwise...forecast is on track.

Previous discussion below...

Upper shortwave moves east tonight and a front slowly approaches
from the north. Not many changes to earlier forecast outside of
slowing frontal passage just a bit. Still thinking clouds and
precip will increase ahead of the front during the pre-dawn hours.
As the boundary sags south through the day...increasing heating
ahead of the boundary...as well as at least a couple of
waves/associated lift riding along the front...will offer a
chance for thunder roughly across the southern half of the area.
Gradual clearing will settle in from north to south as drier air
aloft takes hold behind the front.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will continue to push south of the area Saturday
night...with drier air filtering into the region. High pressure will
then build in for Sunday. Some moisture starts creeping back
northward on Monday...so will increase pops some in the southern
counties.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Used a blend of the operation models and ensemble means through the
period...with a less emphasis given to the ECENS mean due to being
faster than the other guidance. This would have moisture creeping
back northward on Tuesday. A warm front then pushes northward
through the area on Wednesday...bringing deeper moisture and warmer
temperatures for the middle to end of the next work week. There is
some concern that tropical moisture could make it into the region
for the end of next week.

$$

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Approach of a front during the early morning hours will
necessitate increasing clouds and slowly increasing PoPs.
KEKN tanked early tonight with rapid onset of fog and latest
guidance suggests fog at KBKW as well. Will keep them
predominantly IFR through tonight with LIFR possible. Should see
MVFR with transient periods of IFR for the remaining sites. KHTS...KCRW...and
KBKW will have to contend with possible TSRA during the afternoon
depending on frontal position when daytime heating is maximized.
Fog may become an issue again by Sunday morning.

CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: More widespread ifr cigs may develop late
tonight as frontal boundary moves into the area...and may linger
longer than currently forecast. TSRA timing and location may
change tomorrow depending on frontal timing and position.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             SAT 08/06/16
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    M

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR fog possible Sunday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/DTC
NEAR TERM...DTC
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY/99
AVIATION...DTC