067 FXUS61 KRLX 060251 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1051 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front approaching tonight with increasing clouds and showers before dawn and thunder during the afternoon hours Saturday. High pressure Sunday. Warm front next Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 1045 PM EDT Friday... Already seeing some radar returns to our north...from near Dayton OH ENE to north of Pittsburgh PA. Made some minor tweaks to winds overnight and still massaging precipitation onset as frontal boundary approaches. Otherwise...forecast is on track. Previous discussion below... Upper shortwave moves east tonight and a front slowly approaches from the north. Not many changes to earlier forecast outside of slowing frontal passage just a bit. Still thinking clouds and precip will increase ahead of the front during the pre-dawn hours. As the boundary sags south through the day...increasing heating ahead of the boundary...as well as at least a couple of waves/associated lift riding along the front...will offer a chance for thunder roughly across the southern half of the area. Gradual clearing will settle in from north to south as drier air aloft takes hold behind the front. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A cold front will continue to push south of the area Saturday night...with drier air filtering into the region. High pressure will then build in for Sunday. Some moisture starts creeping back northward on Monday...so will increase pops some in the southern counties. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Used a blend of the operation models and ensemble means through the period...with a less emphasis given to the ECENS mean due to being faster than the other guidance. This would have moisture creeping back northward on Tuesday. A warm front then pushes northward through the area on Wednesday...bringing deeper moisture and warmer temperatures for the middle to end of the next work week. There is some concern that tropical moisture could make it into the region for the end of next week. $$ && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Approach of a front during the early morning hours will necessitate increasing clouds and slowly increasing PoPs. KEKN tanked early tonight with rapid onset of fog and latest guidance suggests fog at KBKW as well. Will keep them predominantly IFR through tonight with LIFR possible. Should see MVFR with transient periods of IFR for the remaining sites. KHTS...KCRW...and KBKW will have to contend with possible TSRA during the afternoon depending on frontal position when daytime heating is maximized. Fog may become an issue again by Sunday morning. CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS... FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: More widespread ifr cigs may develop late tonight as frontal boundary moves into the area...and may linger longer than currently forecast. TSRA timing and location may change tomorrow depending on frontal timing and position. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 08/06/16 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M L M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M L M M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M L M M CKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M L L M AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... IFR fog possible Sunday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/DTC NEAR TERM...DTC SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY/99 AVIATION...DTC