122 
FXUS61 KRLX 130751
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
351 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid remains in place through Thursday. A cold front may
push the warm, moist air to the south on Friday. Diurnal
thunderstorms could be possible through the weekend.  

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Will lower pops this evening based on current radar trends and meso
models. With a vorticity lobe moving through overnight...some shower
redevelopment is possible later tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Very little change in the overall forecast as operational guidance
remains in fairly good agreement. Shortwave and associated cold
will arrive in the area Thursday afternoon. A moisture rich
airmass will be entrenched across the entire area with dew points
in the low 70s. Although the best dynamics and stronger winds
aloft will stay well north of West Virginia...it is still likely that
with the diurnal heating to increase MLCAPE to near 1500 J/kg and
some weak height falls with the arrival of the upper trough/cold
front...that scattered thunderstorms kick off across the region.

With PWATs generally forecasted to be at about
1.75"...the thunderstorms will contain locally torrential
rainfall. Forecast soundings are also indicating short Corfidi
vectors of less than 10 knots and any storm development will have
to be watched carefully as back building could present some
isolated flash flooding issues.  

Wind shear...although fairly weak...will be highest across
Northern West Virginia. Here...with precipitation loading and
just enough shear to support more organized convection...we could
see some isolated damaging wind gusts in the stronger storms
during the afternoon and evening hours. Although the thunderstorms
may continue past midnight the threat for severe storms will
diminish significantly after sunset...but water issues may be
possible into the early morning hours on Friday.

Another weak shortwave will approach from the west on Friday with
a chance of thunderstorms nosing back in by afternoon and into the
evening hours and should diminish after sunset.   

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Long term forecast is characterized by a building ridge over the
central part of the CONUS...with a steady stream of disturbances
riding the periphery of the ridge. Unclear at this point if we
will remain in the northwest flow aloft as the ridge builds...but
operational GFS and ECMWF supports exposure to trough passing
through the northeast part of the country. Given the summertime PW
values in place...carrying continuous low end pops through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
06Z  Wednesday thru 06Z Thursday...
One upper level disturbance over central WV at 06Z will exit the
mountains overnight. Another upper level disturbance will move
eastward across the area during the day Wednesday...with yet
another one dropping southeast into southeast Ohio and northern WV
later Wednesday night.

Til 15z... West of the Ohio River...VFR sct clouds with patchy
MVFR fog. East of the Ohio River...generally ceilings 1500-2500
feet with patchy MVFR fog. Scattered showers east of a CKB-CRW
line...exiting the mountains with upper disturbance by 12z.

After 15z...generally BKN VFR ceilings 3500-5000 feet. Ceilings
and vsbys lower in scattered showers and storms...mainly east of
PKB_CRW line...and most numerous in the southern coal fields and
southern mountains.

After 00z...becoming generally sct-bkn VFR with lingering mountain
showers ending by 03z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
 
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR clouds overnight could be more
widespread with less fog. Coverage and timing of convection
Wednesday may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 07/13/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    L    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
No widespread IFR condition expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MPK
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JMV