122 FXUS61 KRLX 130751 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 351 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and humid remains in place through Thursday. A cold front may push the warm, moist air to the south on Friday. Diurnal thunderstorms could be possible through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Will lower pops this evening based on current radar trends and meso models. With a vorticity lobe moving through overnight...some shower redevelopment is possible later tonight. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Very little change in the overall forecast as operational guidance remains in fairly good agreement. Shortwave and associated cold will arrive in the area Thursday afternoon. A moisture rich airmass will be entrenched across the entire area with dew points in the low 70s. Although the best dynamics and stronger winds aloft will stay well north of West Virginia...it is still likely that with the diurnal heating to increase MLCAPE to near 1500 J/kg and some weak height falls with the arrival of the upper trough/cold front...that scattered thunderstorms kick off across the region. With PWATs generally forecasted to be at about 1.75"...the thunderstorms will contain locally torrential rainfall. Forecast soundings are also indicating short Corfidi vectors of less than 10 knots and any storm development will have to be watched carefully as back building could present some isolated flash flooding issues. Wind shear...although fairly weak...will be highest across Northern West Virginia. Here...with precipitation loading and just enough shear to support more organized convection...we could see some isolated damaging wind gusts in the stronger storms during the afternoon and evening hours. Although the thunderstorms may continue past midnight the threat for severe storms will diminish significantly after sunset...but water issues may be possible into the early morning hours on Friday. Another weak shortwave will approach from the west on Friday with a chance of thunderstorms nosing back in by afternoon and into the evening hours and should diminish after sunset. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Long term forecast is characterized by a building ridge over the central part of the CONUS...with a steady stream of disturbances riding the periphery of the ridge. Unclear at this point if we will remain in the northwest flow aloft as the ridge builds...but operational GFS and ECMWF supports exposure to trough passing through the northeast part of the country. Given the summertime PW values in place...carrying continuous low end pops through the period. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 06Z Wednesday thru 06Z Thursday... One upper level disturbance over central WV at 06Z will exit the mountains overnight. Another upper level disturbance will move eastward across the area during the day Wednesday...with yet another one dropping southeast into southeast Ohio and northern WV later Wednesday night. Til 15z... West of the Ohio River...VFR sct clouds with patchy MVFR fog. East of the Ohio River...generally ceilings 1500-2500 feet with patchy MVFR fog. Scattered showers east of a CKB-CRW line...exiting the mountains with upper disturbance by 12z. After 15z...generally BKN VFR ceilings 3500-5000 feet. Ceilings and vsbys lower in scattered showers and storms...mainly east of PKB_CRW line...and most numerous in the southern coal fields and southern mountains. After 00z...becoming generally sct-bkn VFR with lingering mountain showers ending by 03z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR clouds overnight could be more widespread with less fog. Coverage and timing of convection Wednesday may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 07/13/16 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M M L M M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M H H H H AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... No widespread IFR condition expected at this time. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/MPK NEAR TERM...JMV SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM... AVIATION...JMV