839 
FXUS62 KILM 301022
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
623 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will waver in the vicinity through Sunday before
dissipating. This will bring seasonable heat and increasing
thunderstorm chances through the weekend. Warmer and slightly less
unsettled conditions are forecast for Independence Day and into
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 600 AM Thursday...Have trimmed back POPs for the morning
hours based on latest radar trends and guidance. Previous
discussion follows:

Showers are developing offshore early this morning, much as
anticipated, and we are still looking at the good possibility that
they will move ashore, especially from the Brunswick County coast
and northwards. Do not anticipate strong or severe convection to
move ashore but brief and heavy downpours are possible along the
coast this morning.

Rather amorphous pattern at the surface today and tonight while
aloft an H5 longwave trough deepens over eastern CONUS. Although a
wavy stationary front is being analyzed over the western Caolinas,
I'm having a hard time finding anything other than a general
troughiness between broad areas of high pressure inland and
offshore. In any case, this looks like another good day for
convection with a moderately unstable airmass developing this
afternoon and evening within a very moist column. Triggers for
convection include the diurnal sea-breeze circulation, residual
outflow boundries and the inland trough. SPC actual has our whole
area in a marginal risk category for severe weather.

Temperatures today will be quite seasonal, with highs ranging from
the mid 80s along the coast to around 90 well inland. Lows will be
in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...At the upper levels the pattern becomes more
zonal as an H5 longwave trough lifts off to the northeast. At the
surface the pattern will begin in its presently generally amorphous
character on Friday, with an area of troughiness situated inland
between broad areas of high pressure inland and offshore.
Thereafter, guidance drops a cold front slowly southeast towards the
eastern Carolinas, although it stalls and remains to our north
through the remainder of the period. Flow at the surface will be
southwesterly through the period, keeping the lowest levels moist
and very warm, while aloft a deep westerly flow will develop,
bringing in dryer air at the mid and upper levels. Moist low levels
plus a marginally to moderately unstable airmass will keep in the
chance for mainly diurnal convection in through the short term.
Temperatures will gradually warm to just above climo by Saturday,
with highs in the lower 90s and heat index values around 100 on that
day. Expect lows in the mid 70s for both nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...Concern for the extended continues to
revolve around a wavering front which will drape back and forth
across North Carolina through the middle of next week. On Sunday,
this front may make its closest approach and stall immediately
across the ILM CWA. This will support widespread showers and
thunderstorms as the combination of surface convergence...very
unstable air...and weak mid-level impulses all combine to produce
convection locally. Periods of heavy rain are possible Sunday. This
front will then dissipate as a secondary boundary approaches from
the NW. This leaves Mon/Tue as likely less unsettled than Sunday,
but scattered diurnal activity is still expected. As of now, the 4th
of July looks unsettled but not a washout, with temps slightly above
climo. That weather will persist into Tuesday before the eastern
CONUS trough amplifies and drags the second cold front into the
area. This front is more likely to make a clean passage as NW flow
becomes perpendicular to the front. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the FROPA, but little temperature
difference is forecast behind it.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS of 12Z...Convection offshore will scrape Bald Head Island and
perhaps Carolina Beach but should not make it to ILM. There will be
move convection developing by early afternoon along the resultant
and a couple of hours later along the piedmont trough. Coverage is a
bit of an uncertainty, will go with VCTS for now. Light mainly
southerly flow today, with light winds tonight with convective
debris.  

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR. Possible brief MVFR/IFR from
scattered convection each day. Possible brief MVFR from fog or low
ceilings each morning.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM MARINE /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 
As of 600 AM Thursday...No changes to the forecast with the latest
update. Previous discussion follows:

A broad area of high pressure over the western Atlantic in
combination with low pressure inland will maintain a modest,
generally southerly flow over the waters through the near term.
Expect winds in the 10 to 15 kt range with seas of around 3 ft
through the period.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...Winds will be southwesterly through the
short term as high pressure maintains its hold over the western
Atlantic. Expect winds maintain in the 10 to 15kt range, with seas
of around 3 ft for both Friday and Saturday

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 
As of 300 AM Thursday...The coastal waters will be entrenched
between an offshore ridge of high pressure and a slowly wavering
cold front to the NW. This leaves persistent SW winds through the
period, with speeds of 10-15 kts with only slight increase each
night. A low amplitude 7-8 sec SE wave will exist in the wave
spectrum both days, but this will be mostly masked by a 4 ft 5 sec
SW wind wave which will produce 3-4 ft seas Sunday and Monday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43 MARINE...REK/JDW