839 FXUS62 KILM 301022 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 623 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will waver in the vicinity through Sunday before dissipating. This will bring seasonable heat and increasing thunderstorm chances through the weekend. Warmer and slightly less unsettled conditions are forecast for Independence Day and into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 600 AM Thursday...Have trimmed back POPs for the morning hours based on latest radar trends and guidance. Previous discussion follows: Showers are developing offshore early this morning, much as anticipated, and we are still looking at the good possibility that they will move ashore, especially from the Brunswick County coast and northwards. Do not anticipate strong or severe convection to move ashore but brief and heavy downpours are possible along the coast this morning. Rather amorphous pattern at the surface today and tonight while aloft an H5 longwave trough deepens over eastern CONUS. Although a wavy stationary front is being analyzed over the western Caolinas, I'm having a hard time finding anything other than a general troughiness between broad areas of high pressure inland and offshore. In any case, this looks like another good day for convection with a moderately unstable airmass developing this afternoon and evening within a very moist column. Triggers for convection include the diurnal sea-breeze circulation, residual outflow boundries and the inland trough. SPC actual has our whole area in a marginal risk category for severe weather. Temperatures today will be quite seasonal, with highs ranging from the mid 80s along the coast to around 90 well inland. Lows will be in the lower to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Thursday...At the upper levels the pattern becomes more zonal as an H5 longwave trough lifts off to the northeast. At the surface the pattern will begin in its presently generally amorphous character on Friday, with an area of troughiness situated inland between broad areas of high pressure inland and offshore. Thereafter, guidance drops a cold front slowly southeast towards the eastern Carolinas, although it stalls and remains to our north through the remainder of the period. Flow at the surface will be southwesterly through the period, keeping the lowest levels moist and very warm, while aloft a deep westerly flow will develop, bringing in dryer air at the mid and upper levels. Moist low levels plus a marginally to moderately unstable airmass will keep in the chance for mainly diurnal convection in through the short term. Temperatures will gradually warm to just above climo by Saturday, with highs in the lower 90s and heat index values around 100 on that day. Expect lows in the mid 70s for both nights. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 AM Thursday...Concern for the extended continues to revolve around a wavering front which will drape back and forth across North Carolina through the middle of next week. On Sunday, this front may make its closest approach and stall immediately across the ILM CWA. This will support widespread showers and thunderstorms as the combination of surface convergence...very unstable air...and weak mid-level impulses all combine to produce convection locally. Periods of heavy rain are possible Sunday. This front will then dissipate as a secondary boundary approaches from the NW. This leaves Mon/Tue as likely less unsettled than Sunday, but scattered diurnal activity is still expected. As of now, the 4th of July looks unsettled but not a washout, with temps slightly above climo. That weather will persist into Tuesday before the eastern CONUS trough amplifies and drags the second cold front into the area. This front is more likely to make a clean passage as NW flow becomes perpendicular to the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the FROPA, but little temperature difference is forecast behind it. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS of 12Z...Convection offshore will scrape Bald Head Island and perhaps Carolina Beach but should not make it to ILM. There will be move convection developing by early afternoon along the resultant and a couple of hours later along the piedmont trough. Coverage is a bit of an uncertainty, will go with VCTS for now. Light mainly southerly flow today, with light winds tonight with convective debris. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR. Possible brief MVFR/IFR from scattered convection each day. Possible brief MVFR from fog or low ceilings each morning. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM MARINE /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 600 AM Thursday...No changes to the forecast with the latest update. Previous discussion follows: A broad area of high pressure over the western Atlantic in combination with low pressure inland will maintain a modest, generally southerly flow over the waters through the near term. Expect winds in the 10 to 15 kt range with seas of around 3 ft through the period. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Thursday...Winds will be southwesterly through the short term as high pressure maintains its hold over the western Atlantic. Expect winds maintain in the 10 to 15kt range, with seas of around 3 ft for both Friday and Saturday LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 AM Thursday...The coastal waters will be entrenched between an offshore ridge of high pressure and a slowly wavering cold front to the NW. This leaves persistent SW winds through the period, with speeds of 10-15 kts with only slight increase each night. A low amplitude 7-8 sec SE wave will exist in the wave spectrum both days, but this will be mostly masked by a 4 ft 5 sec SW wind wave which will produce 3-4 ft seas Sunday and Monday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...43 MARINE...REK/JDW