823 
FXUS63 KLBF 250826
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
326 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

At H5 closed low over the Gulf of Alaska. Fairly strong closed low
over Montana this morning creating weather from the central into
the northern plains. Weak ridge ahead of this system through the
Mississippi Valley and a trough from the Hudson Bay low into the
east coast. 

At the surface closed low over Montana with attendant surface low
centered over Mobridge with trough through central Nebraska and cool
front into east central Wyoming approaching the Nebraska
Panhandle. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

With storms moving through Valentine early this morning there was
a heat burst raising temperatures from 80f to 89f. Outflow from
thunderstorms moving south from Tryon to Newport. Some widely
scattered weak returns over western Nebraska. 3 hour pressure
change has fairly robust 6 mb rises over Northeast Wyoming with 3
mb falls over Fargo and a modest 1 mb fall over most of Nebraska.
Td's in the 40s in the panhandle with near 70 over north central
Nebraska. Will keep east and southwest in slight chances through
the morning and then increasing chances east as Cool front moves
east this afternoon with fairly strong upper level wave across
southwest Nebraska. Moisture pooling ahead of the front with td's
in the mid to upper 60s. Fairly warm 700mb temperatures and think
that some storms could be on the strong side but below severe.
Have left tonight dry with front to be well south and east of
forecast area. Highs today in the low 80s and lows tonight in the
50s to around 60.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Sunday and Monday, subsequent PV anomaly and attendant secondary
cold frontal push works its way across southern Canada and into the
Great Lakes area as the upper ridge redevelops across the western
half of the U.S. This front will lose its southward momentum across
Nebraska, stalling across the southern portion of the state Monday
morning. Upslope flow north of the front will hold low level
moisture in place in addition to an unstable layer aloft. This will
allow thunderstorms to develop being forced along the stalled
front, though timing of the upper level PV anomaly is a bit
atypical. If the actual timing is a little later on Monday then
severe weather potential is better owing to better realization of
instability and deep layer shear conducive for organization.
Regardless models similar in developing a convective complex
sliding southeast through the day Monday. With clouds and precip
across the area temps will be held down some.

Models similar in bringing the next significant upper disturbance
over the ridge and into the High Plains Tuesday night into Wed. Some
obvious timing diffs between the models but all develop a
significant convective complex diving southeast Tuesday night into
Wed possibly lingering through the day Wed. So confidence remains
decent with this idea, as in the previous discussion, so no
reason to back off of blended model precip chances in this time
period. Temps again will be held down Wed due to clouds and
precip, with upper 70s north and lower 80s south, however it is
plausible that 70s might be more common should widespread precip
develop.

After a brief lull Thursday a return to a more active pattern
returns Friday into early Saturday as northwest flow aloft
continues. This type of pattern is favorable for more organized
convection as several upper disturbances pass through and prior to
each southerly flow develops in response to the lowering pressures
further west. This will set the stage for moisture return and
resultant instability, and with the stronger flow aloft deep layer
shear will be better to sustain organized convection. Max temps will
continue to be near average for the time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

A line of showers and thunderstorms in central Cherry county
will move northeast to affect the kvtn terminal to begin the taf
period. this activity will move east of the terminal by 07z.
Otherwise, vfr conditions forecast at the klbf and kvtn terminals
the next 24 hrs. A cold front will move through kvtn and klbf after
14z saturday with gusty north to northwest winds up to 24 kts. Winds
diminish by 21z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

The North and South Platte rivers gage heights over western Nebraska
continue to fall. Lewellen and North Platte on the North Platte
river remain at action stage.  North Platte River at North Platte
and Lewellen have fallen below flood stage as releases from Lake
McConaughy continue to decrease. They are expected to remain within
action stage through at least early next week. All gages on the
South Platte are below action stage as well as Brady on the main
stem of the Platte River. 

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Power
SHORT TERM...Power
LONG TERM...Stoppkotte
AVIATION...Power
HYDROLOGY...Power