823 FXUS63 KLBF 250826 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 326 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016 At H5 closed low over the Gulf of Alaska. Fairly strong closed low over Montana this morning creating weather from the central into the northern plains. Weak ridge ahead of this system through the Mississippi Valley and a trough from the Hudson Bay low into the east coast. At the surface closed low over Montana with attendant surface low centered over Mobridge with trough through central Nebraska and cool front into east central Wyoming approaching the Nebraska Panhandle. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016 With storms moving through Valentine early this morning there was a heat burst raising temperatures from 80f to 89f. Outflow from thunderstorms moving south from Tryon to Newport. Some widely scattered weak returns over western Nebraska. 3 hour pressure change has fairly robust 6 mb rises over Northeast Wyoming with 3 mb falls over Fargo and a modest 1 mb fall over most of Nebraska. Td's in the 40s in the panhandle with near 70 over north central Nebraska. Will keep east and southwest in slight chances through the morning and then increasing chances east as Cool front moves east this afternoon with fairly strong upper level wave across southwest Nebraska. Moisture pooling ahead of the front with td's in the mid to upper 60s. Fairly warm 700mb temperatures and think that some storms could be on the strong side but below severe. Have left tonight dry with front to be well south and east of forecast area. Highs today in the low 80s and lows tonight in the 50s to around 60. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016 Sunday and Monday, subsequent PV anomaly and attendant secondary cold frontal push works its way across southern Canada and into the Great Lakes area as the upper ridge redevelops across the western half of the U.S. This front will lose its southward momentum across Nebraska, stalling across the southern portion of the state Monday morning. Upslope flow north of the front will hold low level moisture in place in addition to an unstable layer aloft. This will allow thunderstorms to develop being forced along the stalled front, though timing of the upper level PV anomaly is a bit atypical. If the actual timing is a little later on Monday then severe weather potential is better owing to better realization of instability and deep layer shear conducive for organization. Regardless models similar in developing a convective complex sliding southeast through the day Monday. With clouds and precip across the area temps will be held down some. Models similar in bringing the next significant upper disturbance over the ridge and into the High Plains Tuesday night into Wed. Some obvious timing diffs between the models but all develop a significant convective complex diving southeast Tuesday night into Wed possibly lingering through the day Wed. So confidence remains decent with this idea, as in the previous discussion, so no reason to back off of blended model precip chances in this time period. Temps again will be held down Wed due to clouds and precip, with upper 70s north and lower 80s south, however it is plausible that 70s might be more common should widespread precip develop. After a brief lull Thursday a return to a more active pattern returns Friday into early Saturday as northwest flow aloft continues. This type of pattern is favorable for more organized convection as several upper disturbances pass through and prior to each southerly flow develops in response to the lowering pressures further west. This will set the stage for moisture return and resultant instability, and with the stronger flow aloft deep layer shear will be better to sustain organized convection. Max temps will continue to be near average for the time of year. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016 A line of showers and thunderstorms in central Cherry county will move northeast to affect the kvtn terminal to begin the taf period. this activity will move east of the terminal by 07z. Otherwise, vfr conditions forecast at the klbf and kvtn terminals the next 24 hrs. A cold front will move through kvtn and klbf after 14z saturday with gusty north to northwest winds up to 24 kts. Winds diminish by 21z. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016 The North and South Platte rivers gage heights over western Nebraska continue to fall. Lewellen and North Platte on the North Platte river remain at action stage. North Platte River at North Platte and Lewellen have fallen below flood stage as releases from Lake McConaughy continue to decrease. They are expected to remain within action stage through at least early next week. All gages on the South Platte are below action stage as well as Brady on the main stem of the Platte River. && .LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Power SHORT TERM...Power LONG TERM...Stoppkotte AVIATION...Power HYDROLOGY...Power