144 
FXUS62 KMHX 242015
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
415 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE
THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY, THEN STALL TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL
RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT FROM THE WEST MONDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS 
FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...BREEZY WARM SECTOR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS AREA OVERNIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING WITH LINGERING
SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS ALONG COAST EARLY. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT WITH MOISTENING LOW LVLS RESULTING IN SOME SCT-BKN
SCU LATE...ALONG WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN AHEAD OF
FRONT. MODELS REMAIN SPLIT WITH PCPN THREAT OVERNIGHT...WITH ECMWF
DRY WHILE NAM AND GFS INDICATE SCT LIGHT ACTIVITY BY 12Z. KEPT
PREVIOUS FCST OF 20-30 POPS AFTER 2 AM...AS CANNOT RULE OUT
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING WITH INCREASING SRLY FLOW AND SOME FORCING
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. SRLY FLOW 10-15 MPH OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN LOW-MID 60S. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...LEANED TO SLIGHTLY SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT
INTO AREA INDICATED BY ECMWF AND NAM MODELS...AS THIS IS MORE IN
LINE WITH MAIN UPR LVL SYSTEM LIFTING OUT TO NE. ALL MODELS
INDICATE FAIRLY WDSPRD PCPN THREAT...AND KEPT LIKELY POPS ALL
ZONES FOR LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN WITH WORDING OF SHOWERS AND
SLGT CHC TSTMS. SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED ALONG WITH MAIN
DYNAMICS REMAINING WELL N OF AREA...THUS THREAT OF STRONG TO SVR
TSTMS WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST. MAX TEMPS IN UPR 70S INLAND AND
LOW TO MID 70S COAST. 

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM THU...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK THROUGH E NC
FRIDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND, THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS AGAIN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MODEST
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FIRST HALF OF
FRIDAY EVENING SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE SLT CHC THUNDER
MENTION...THOUGH UPPER SUPPORT/JET DYNAMICS AND SHORTWAVE
FEATURES REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE REGION, LIMITING OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT. AS SFC FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD...SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FCST ESP FOR SOUTHERN ZONES. WITH THE
SLOWER FRONTAL PROGRESSIONL...ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM 50 NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH.

SATURDAY...THE SFC FRONT WILL HAVE DROPPED SOUTH OF THE CRYSTAL
COAST BY 12Z SAT...THOUGH A DECENT FRONTAL INVERSION REMAINS IN
PLACE AS 850MB FLOW REMAINS SWRLY. PWATS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 1 INCH
THROUGH THE DAY...AND MAY SEE SOME SCT RAIN SHOWERS REDEVELOP ESP
ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. NAM IS MOST ROBUST THOUGH IS A WET
OUTLIER. DETERMINISTIC MOS VALS FROM ECS/MAV ARE FAIRLY DRY THOUGH
ENSMOS VALS AND PLUMES SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WILL
ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS...HIGHEST SOUTH. TEMPS A BIT COOLER WITH THE
NE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER...WITH HIGHS UPPER 50S N OBX AND UPPER 60S
SW ZONES.

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY AS BRIEF WEAK RIDGING WILL BE
IN PLACE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. LOWS STILL MILD WITH 50-58...AND
HIGHS RANGING IN THE LOW/MID 60S OBX TO LOW/MID 70S SW. KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN FCST FOR SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FA AS WEAK WAVY
BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE JUST SOUTH OF E NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...GUIDANCE INDICATES A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NC LATE SUNDAY WHILE SHORTWAVE/VORTMAX
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS DIVERGE SLIGHTLY WITH TIMING OF WARM
FRONT AND SURFACE LOW/ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OHIO
RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. 24/12Z GFS CONTINUES A BIT
FASTER THAN THE GEM/ECM SOLN SO RETAINED HIGHEST POPS 2ND HALF OF
SUNDAY NIGHT...RAISING TO LIKELIES MOST OF E NC. RETAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH WITH TIMING OF SYSTEM MEAGER
INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH MOST OF IT ELEVATED IN NATURE
SO NO SEVERE EXPECTED. WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS AS LL WAA DEVELOPS WITH
READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60. LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
FIRST HALF OF MONDAY THOUGH TREND WILL BE FOR IMPROVING WEATHER
AND PERHAPS A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS TURN WSW WITH COLUMN DRYING PROMOTING WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 70S (UPPER 60S OBX).

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S INLAND TO AROUND 50
ACROSS THE BEACHES/OBX. NEXT IN THE SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS
MAY AFFECT THE AREA AS EARLY AS THURSDAY...SO HAVE INTRODUCED
SLGHT CHANCE POPS

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH BREEZY WARM SECTOR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED SHOWERS
MOVING IN ALONG COAST WILL REMAIN E OF TAF SITES. SCT TO OCNLY BKN
CU/SCU AOA 4K FT WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING. INCREASING LOW
LVL MOIST SRLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN LOWER SCU SPREADING IN
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED MOST AREAS AFT 08Z. SCT SHRA MAY
BEGIN TO AFFECT AREA 11-15Z...WITH COVERAGE INCREASING AFT 15Z.
ISOLD TSTMS PSBL AS WELL BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME TO WARRANT MENTION IN TAFS. S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT
THIS AFTN AND EVENING...UP TO 20 KT TONIGHT...AND UP TO 25 KT
AGAIN FRIDAY. 

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM THU...SUB-VFR IN LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT
AS WINDS TURN NE AND FRONTAL INVERSION DEVELOPS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING FRIDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH A SMALL THREAT OF
THUDER. SHOWER CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT
THOUGH LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN. CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE BY SUNDAY THOUGH NE WINDS WILL PERSIST WITH FRONTAL
INVERSION SLOW TO ERODE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...TIGHTENING PRES GRAD AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN SRLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25 KT ACROSS
WATERS TONGIHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHEST SPEEDS OVER
OUTER PORTIONS OF SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS NEAR WRN EDGE OF GULF
STREAM. ERN PORTIONS OF PAMLICO SOUND WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW HOURS
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT SCA
ISSUANCE...THUS WILL CONTINUE CURRENT SCA FOR SRN AND CENTRAL
WATERS WHICH WILL EXTEND INTO FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT.

LATEST NWPS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST SEAS...BUT DID
ADJUST FCST FOR FRIDAY TO INDICATE MORE WIDESPREAD 6-7 FT HEIGHTS
OVER SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS. ELEVATED SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO FRI
NIGHT. 

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM THU...WINDS WILL VEER NE FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT SLOWLY
SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS. NORTHEAST SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT
EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS 20 KNOTS, AND
SEAS REMAINING ELEVATED ABOVE 6 FT ESP FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. BOATING CONDITIONS IMPROVE SUNDAY AS
WINDS DIMINISH VEERING TO EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KT ON
MONDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING ABOVE 6 FT AHEAD OF NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM
AND COLD FRONT. WINDS TURN NW ON TUE WITH CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS
AND 6+ FT SEAS NORTH OF OCRACOKE. 

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JBM/TL
MARINE...JBM/TL