144 FXUS62 KMHX 242015 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 415 PM EDT THU MAR 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY, THEN STALL TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST MONDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...BREEZY WARM SECTOR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS AREA OVERNIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING WITH LINGERING SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS ALONG COAST EARLY. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WITH MOISTENING LOW LVLS RESULTING IN SOME SCT-BKN SCU LATE...ALONG WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN AHEAD OF FRONT. MODELS REMAIN SPLIT WITH PCPN THREAT OVERNIGHT...WITH ECMWF DRY WHILE NAM AND GFS INDICATE SCT LIGHT ACTIVITY BY 12Z. KEPT PREVIOUS FCST OF 20-30 POPS AFTER 2 AM...AS CANNOT RULE OUT ACTIVITY DEVELOPING WITH INCREASING SRLY FLOW AND SOME FORCING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. SRLY FLOW 10-15 MPH OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN LOW-MID 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...LEANED TO SLIGHTLY SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT INTO AREA INDICATED BY ECMWF AND NAM MODELS...AS THIS IS MORE IN LINE WITH MAIN UPR LVL SYSTEM LIFTING OUT TO NE. ALL MODELS INDICATE FAIRLY WDSPRD PCPN THREAT...AND KEPT LIKELY POPS ALL ZONES FOR LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN WITH WORDING OF SHOWERS AND SLGT CHC TSTMS. SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED ALONG WITH MAIN DYNAMICS REMAINING WELL N OF AREA...THUS THREAT OF STRONG TO SVR TSTMS WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST. MAX TEMPS IN UPR 70S INLAND AND LOW TO MID 70S COAST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 4 PM THU...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK THROUGH E NC FRIDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND, THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS AGAIN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY EVENING SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE SLT CHC THUNDER MENTION...THOUGH UPPER SUPPORT/JET DYNAMICS AND SHORTWAVE FEATURES REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE REGION, LIMITING OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. AS SFC FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FCST ESP FOR SOUTHERN ZONES. WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL PROGRESSIONL...ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM 50 NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH. SATURDAY...THE SFC FRONT WILL HAVE DROPPED SOUTH OF THE CRYSTAL COAST BY 12Z SAT...THOUGH A DECENT FRONTAL INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE AS 850MB FLOW REMAINS SWRLY. PWATS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 1 INCH THROUGH THE DAY...AND MAY SEE SOME SCT RAIN SHOWERS REDEVELOP ESP ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. NAM IS MOST ROBUST THOUGH IS A WET OUTLIER. DETERMINISTIC MOS VALS FROM ECS/MAV ARE FAIRLY DRY THOUGH ENSMOS VALS AND PLUMES SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WILL ADVERTISE 20-30 POPS...HIGHEST SOUTH. TEMPS A BIT COOLER WITH THE NE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER...WITH HIGHS UPPER 50S N OBX AND UPPER 60S SW ZONES. SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY AS BRIEF WEAK RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. LOWS STILL MILD WITH 50-58...AND HIGHS RANGING IN THE LOW/MID 60S OBX TO LOW/MID 70S SW. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN FCST FOR SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE FA AS WEAK WAVY BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE JUST SOUTH OF E NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...GUIDANCE INDICATES A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH EASTERN NC LATE SUNDAY WHILE SHORTWAVE/VORTMAX APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS DIVERGE SLIGHTLY WITH TIMING OF WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW/ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. 24/12Z GFS CONTINUES A BIT FASTER THAN THE GEM/ECM SOLN SO RETAINED HIGHEST POPS 2ND HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT...RAISING TO LIKELIES MOST OF E NC. RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH WITH TIMING OF SYSTEM MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH MOST OF IT ELEVATED IN NATURE SO NO SEVERE EXPECTED. WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS AS LL WAA DEVELOPS WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60. LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FIRST HALF OF MONDAY THOUGH TREND WILL BE FOR IMPROVING WEATHER AND PERHAPS A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS TURN WSW WITH COLUMN DRYING PROMOTING WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S (UPPER 60S OBX). TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS. HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S INLAND TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE BEACHES/OBX. NEXT IN THE SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS MAY AFFECT THE AREA AS EARLY AS THURSDAY...SO HAVE INTRODUCED SLGHT CHANCE POPS && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH BREEZY WARM SECTOR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING IN ALONG COAST WILL REMAIN E OF TAF SITES. SCT TO OCNLY BKN CU/SCU AOA 4K FT WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING. INCREASING LOW LVL MOIST SRLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN LOWER SCU SPREADING IN OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED MOST AREAS AFT 08Z. SCT SHRA MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT AREA 11-15Z...WITH COVERAGE INCREASING AFT 15Z. ISOLD TSTMS PSBL AS WELL BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT MENTION IN TAFS. S-SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT THIS AFTN AND EVENING...UP TO 20 KT TONIGHT...AND UP TO 25 KT AGAIN FRIDAY. LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 4 PM THU...SUB-VFR IN LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS TURN NE AND FRONTAL INVERSION DEVELOPS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FRIDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH A SMALL THREAT OF THUDER. SHOWER CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE BY SUNDAY THOUGH NE WINDS WILL PERSIST WITH FRONTAL INVERSION SLOW TO ERODE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...TIGHTENING PRES GRAD AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN SRLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25 KT ACROSS WATERS TONGIHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHEST SPEEDS OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS NEAR WRN EDGE OF GULF STREAM. ERN PORTIONS OF PAMLICO SOUND WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW HOURS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT SCA ISSUANCE...THUS WILL CONTINUE CURRENT SCA FOR SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS WHICH WILL EXTEND INTO FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT. LATEST NWPS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST SEAS...BUT DID ADJUST FCST FOR FRIDAY TO INDICATE MORE WIDESPREAD 6-7 FT HEIGHTS OVER SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS. ELEVATED SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO FRI NIGHT. LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 4 PM THU...WINDS WILL VEER NE FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS. NORTHEAST SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS 20 KNOTS, AND SEAS REMAINING ELEVATED ABOVE 6 FT ESP FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. BOATING CONDITIONS IMPROVE SUNDAY AS WINDS DIMINISH VEERING TO EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER SURGE OF SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KT ON MONDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING ABOVE 6 FT AHEAD OF NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. WINDS TURN NW ON TUE WITH CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS AND 6+ FT SEAS NORTH OF OCRACOKE. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM NEAR TERM...JBM SHORT TERM...JBM LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...JBM/TL MARINE...JBM/TL