237 
FXUS64 KAMA 231520 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1020 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO SHORT TERM FORECAST. SEE AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR
UPDATES THERE AS WELL.

UPDATED TEMPS...DEWPOINT...AND RH GRIDS THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON
LATEST EXPECTATIONS FOR COLD FRONT TIMING. GOING WIND FORECAST LOOKS
TO BE ON TRACK...WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH ALREADY BEING OBSERVED AT
SOME SITES IN THE PANHANDLES. HIGH WINDS AND ALREADY LOW RH VALUES
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE IN THE PANHANDLES.

NF

&&

.AVIATION...
BLOWING DUST HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF KAMA THIS MORNING. WITH
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...HAVE LOWERED PREVAILING VISIBILITY TO 3 SM AT KAMA.
VISIBILITY COULD PERIODICALLY DROP TO 1 OR 2 SM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016/ 

AVIATION...
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE 45 TO 50 KNOT
RANGE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LOWER CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
DHT AND GUY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THEY SHOULD STAY IN THE
VFR RANGE. SOME BLOWING DUST MAY LOWER VISIBILITIES IN SPOTS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO LOWER THE VISIBILITIES AT THE TAF
SITES. AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE AMA TAF
SITE FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016/ 

DISCUSSION...
A MID AND UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL TRACK EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES BY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST AWAY
FROM THE PANHANDLES THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWEST AND WEST
WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 OR 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 60 MPH BY
LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY OR AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 1 TO 3 MILES AT TIMES OR
POSSIBLY LESS. TOYED WITH THE IDEA OF A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT HELD OFF FOR NOW. WITH THE VERY STRONG
WINDS EXPECTED...ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH 03Z THURSDAY OR 10 PM THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN
TO SUBSIDE BY 06Z THURSDAY. MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW COULD BRING SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OR VIRGA
SHOWERS TO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING.

COOL SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS BUT DRY THURSDAY.
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES FRIDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASING DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH
AND EAST WILL ALLOW FOR UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW AND ADVECTION OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE PANHANDLES FROM THE ROCKIES AND FOUR CORNERS REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLES WHERE
LIGHT RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. 

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
AND COOL SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS ALONG WITH INCREASING DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY RETURN DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL TRACK
EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES LATE NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 25 TO
35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 50 TO 60 MPH COMBINE WITH MINIM UM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 5 TO 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED JUST NORTH OF THE CRITICAL AREA ACROSS THE
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND EXTREME NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES
FRIDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF 
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH...
     DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...
     OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

OK...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

6/16