237 FXUS64 KAMA 231520 AAB AFDAMA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 1020 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016 .UPDATE... QUICK UPDATE TO SHORT TERM FORECAST. SEE AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR UPDATES THERE AS WELL. UPDATED TEMPS...DEWPOINT...AND RH GRIDS THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON LATEST EXPECTATIONS FOR COLD FRONT TIMING. GOING WIND FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK...WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH ALREADY BEING OBSERVED AT SOME SITES IN THE PANHANDLES. HIGH WINDS AND ALREADY LOW RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND ELEVATED TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE IN THE PANHANDLES. NF && .AVIATION... BLOWING DUST HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF KAMA THIS MORNING. WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...HAVE LOWERED PREVAILING VISIBILITY TO 3 SM AT KAMA. VISIBILITY COULD PERIODICALLY DROP TO 1 OR 2 SM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NF && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016/ AVIATION... STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE 45 TO 50 KNOT RANGE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LOWER CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT DHT AND GUY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THEY SHOULD STAY IN THE VFR RANGE. SOME BLOWING DUST MAY LOWER VISIBILITIES IN SPOTS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO LOWER THE VISIBILITIES AT THE TAF SITES. AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE AMA TAF SITE FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT WED MAR 23 2016/ DISCUSSION... A MID AND UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL TRACK EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES BY TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES THURSDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 OR 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 60 MPH BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY OR AREAS OF BLOWING DUST COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 1 TO 3 MILES AT TIMES OR POSSIBLY LESS. TOYED WITH THE IDEA OF A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT HELD OFF FOR NOW. WITH THE VERY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED...ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 03Z THURSDAY OR 10 PM THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY 06Z THURSDAY. MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW COULD BRING SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OR VIRGA SHOWERS TO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. COOL SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS BUT DRY THURSDAY. DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST WILL ALLOW FOR UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW AND ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLES FROM THE ROCKIES AND FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLES WHERE LIGHT RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND COOL SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ALONG WITH INCREASING DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY RETURN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL TRACK EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES LATE NEXT WEEK. SCHNEIDER FIRE WEATHER... CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 50 TO 60 MPH COMBINE WITH MINIM UM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 5 TO 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN...CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED JUST NORTH OF THE CRITICAL AREA ACROSS THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND EXTREME NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. SCHNEIDER && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL... HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM... POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER. RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DEAF SMITH... DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE... OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...WHEELER. OK...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS. && $$ 6/16