852 
FXUS61 KCAR 031044
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
544 AM EST THU MAR 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH TODAY...CREST THE REGION FRIDAY
THEN MOVE EAST SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
540 AM UPDATE: LATEST 5 AM OBS SHOWED TEMPS ALREADY EXCEEDING FCST
LOWS AT SOME LCTNS...SO WE NEEDED TO LOWER FCST LOWS FROM LAST NGT
POSTED AT 7 AM...THEN MODIFY FCST HRLY TEMPS INTO THE LATE MORN
HRS. OTHERWISE...NO SIG CHGS FOR THIS UPDATE.
 
ORGNL DISC: WE CONTD WITH THE WIND CHILL ADV FOR THE NW AND FAR
NE THIS MORN. ALTHOUGH APPARENT TEMPS RISE ABV -20 DEG C BY
AFTN...WE CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER PD OF WIND CHILL ADV HDLNS FOR
LATE AFTN INTO THIS EVE BEFORE WINDS DROP BELOW 5 MPH LATE TNGT.
PRIOR TO THIS...COLD ADVCN NW WINDS WILL BE BRISK TDY WITH OCNL
WIND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE...HOLDING HI TEMPS ABOUT 20
DEG BELOW SEASONAL AVGS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING FOR SOME SC
ACROSS THE N HLF OF THE FA DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTN
TM FRAME.

AFTWRDS FOR TNGT...SKIES SHOULD CLR AND WINDS DIMINISH FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVR FRESH SN PACK OVR SPCLY THE NW AND FAR
BROAD RVR VLYS OF THE FA WHERE COLDEST LCTNS WILL LIKELY FALL
BELOW 20 BELOW ZERO. TEMPS OVR CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS MAY BE
HELD UP BY HI CLDNSS LATE TNGT FROM THE LOW MOVG E FROM THE MID
ATLC COAST. CLDS WILL CONT TO SLOWLY THICKEN OVR THE S HLF OF THE
FA DURING THE DAY FRI...WHILE THE N HLF REMAINS MCLR TO PTLY CLDY.
WITH NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT WARM ADVCN XPCTD FRI...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE
ABOUT 10 DEG F WARMER THAN TDY

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A BIT COLDER THAN AVERAGE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, AND
MOST LIKELY DRY. MAIN CONCERN IS A STRONG SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PASS
OFFSHORE THE MAINE COAST. WHILE MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE MAINE COAST, IT'S STILL PROGGED TO PASS
TOO CLOSE TO WRITE OFF COMPLETELY YET.

FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS ESPECIALLY COLD IN NORTHWEST MAINE UNDER THE
SURFACE HIGH AND AWAY FROM THE OUTER INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE LOW
PASSING OFFSHORE. SOME PLACES IN THE NORTH WOODS COULD DROP NEAR
20 BELOW. NOT QUITE AS COLD SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY DUE TO A BIT OF
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS A VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES. &&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY,
WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN US COAST MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HERE IN MAINE, WE WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND CLOSER TO THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SO WHILE WE
CAN EXPECT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL
ALSO BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO OCCASIONAL SHOTS OF RAIN OR A MIX AS WEAK
SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. OVERALL PATTERN NOT
LOOKING GOOD FOR SNOW AND COLD THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK, SO IT'S A
GOOD POSSIBILITY THIS SAD WINTER FOR SNOW LOVERS COULD GO OUT WITH
A WHIMPER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR THRU FRI...WITH OCNL MVFR INTERVALS TDY ACROSS
NRN MOST TAF SITES.

SHORT TERM: EXPECTING VFR AREAWIDE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. NEXT SHOT AT MVFR OR IFR COMES WITH A POTENTIAL WEAK SYSTEM
FOR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT SCA FOR TDY...WITH WINDS AND
SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTN TO BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS
AFTN. THE COMBO OF WIND AND TEMPS FOR THIS MORN RESULTED IN MDT
FZG SPY...SO WE ISSUED A FZG SPY ADV TIL NOON FOR OUR WATERS.
OTHERWISE...WE STAYED CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS.

SHORT TERM: AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT, EXPECT HIGH LEVEL SMALL CRAFT OR LOW LEVEL GALES FROM THE
NORTH. SEAS SHOULD PEAK AROUND 8 FEET. SEAS AND WINDS BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ002-
     010.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ001-003-004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     ANZ050>052.
     FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...VJN/FOISY
MARINE...VJN/FOISY