852 FXUS61 KCAR 031044 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 544 AM EST THU MAR 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH TODAY...CREST THE REGION FRIDAY THEN MOVE EAST SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 540 AM UPDATE: LATEST 5 AM OBS SHOWED TEMPS ALREADY EXCEEDING FCST LOWS AT SOME LCTNS...SO WE NEEDED TO LOWER FCST LOWS FROM LAST NGT POSTED AT 7 AM...THEN MODIFY FCST HRLY TEMPS INTO THE LATE MORN HRS. OTHERWISE...NO SIG CHGS FOR THIS UPDATE. ORGNL DISC: WE CONTD WITH THE WIND CHILL ADV FOR THE NW AND FAR NE THIS MORN. ALTHOUGH APPARENT TEMPS RISE ABV -20 DEG C BY AFTN...WE CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER PD OF WIND CHILL ADV HDLNS FOR LATE AFTN INTO THIS EVE BEFORE WINDS DROP BELOW 5 MPH LATE TNGT. PRIOR TO THIS...COLD ADVCN NW WINDS WILL BE BRISK TDY WITH OCNL WIND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE...HOLDING HI TEMPS ABOUT 20 DEG BELOW SEASONAL AVGS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING FOR SOME SC ACROSS THE N HLF OF THE FA DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTN TM FRAME. AFTWRDS FOR TNGT...SKIES SHOULD CLR AND WINDS DIMINISH FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVR FRESH SN PACK OVR SPCLY THE NW AND FAR BROAD RVR VLYS OF THE FA WHERE COLDEST LCTNS WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW 20 BELOW ZERO. TEMPS OVR CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS MAY BE HELD UP BY HI CLDNSS LATE TNGT FROM THE LOW MOVG E FROM THE MID ATLC COAST. CLDS WILL CONT TO SLOWLY THICKEN OVR THE S HLF OF THE FA DURING THE DAY FRI...WHILE THE N HLF REMAINS MCLR TO PTLY CLDY. WITH NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT WARM ADVCN XPCTD FRI...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEG F WARMER THAN TDY && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A BIT COLDER THAN AVERAGE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, AND MOST LIKELY DRY. MAIN CONCERN IS A STRONG SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PASS OFFSHORE THE MAINE COAST. WHILE MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE MAINE COAST, IT'S STILL PROGGED TO PASS TOO CLOSE TO WRITE OFF COMPLETELY YET. FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS ESPECIALLY COLD IN NORTHWEST MAINE UNDER THE SURFACE HIGH AND AWAY FROM THE OUTER INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE LOW PASSING OFFSHORE. SOME PLACES IN THE NORTH WOODS COULD DROP NEAR 20 BELOW. NOT QUITE AS COLD SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY DUE TO A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS A VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY, WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN US COAST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HERE IN MAINE, WE WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND CLOSER TO THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SO WHILE WE CAN EXPECT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL ALSO BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO OCCASIONAL SHOTS OF RAIN OR A MIX AS WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. OVERALL PATTERN NOT LOOKING GOOD FOR SNOW AND COLD THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK, SO IT'S A GOOD POSSIBILITY THIS SAD WINTER FOR SNOW LOVERS COULD GO OUT WITH A WHIMPER. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR THRU FRI...WITH OCNL MVFR INTERVALS TDY ACROSS NRN MOST TAF SITES. SHORT TERM: EXPECTING VFR AREAWIDE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NEXT SHOT AT MVFR OR IFR COMES WITH A POTENTIAL WEAK SYSTEM FOR MONDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WILL CONT WITH THE CURRENT SCA FOR TDY...WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTN TO BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THIS AFTN. THE COMBO OF WIND AND TEMPS FOR THIS MORN RESULTED IN MDT FZG SPY...SO WE ISSUED A FZG SPY ADV TIL NOON FOR OUR WATERS. OTHERWISE...WE STAYED CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS. SHORT TERM: AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT, EXPECT HIGH LEVEL SMALL CRAFT OR LOW LEVEL GALES FROM THE NORTH. SEAS SHOULD PEAK AROUND 8 FEET. SEAS AND WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ002- 010. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR MEZ001-003-004. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...FOISY LONG TERM...FOISY AVIATION...VJN/FOISY MARINE...VJN/FOISY