842 
FXUS61 KRLX 160932
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
432 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...TAKING RAIN AND
SNOW WITH IT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE AREA FIRST THING THIS MORNING...TAKING
THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH IT. POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN HAD
BECOME MINIMAL IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY AS SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WERE ALL BUT ERADICATED THERE...AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE
IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE THIS MORNING. COLDER AIR SFC AND ALOFT
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WAS LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE...YET JUST ENOUGH TO
BRING ABOUT A MIXING WITH AND THEN CHANGING BACK TO SNOW AS FAR E
AS HTS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD REACH CRW BY DAYBREAK WHILE
A SNOW LEVEL FORMS AND LOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

THE CHANGE OVER WAS FAST ENOUGH ON OUR WRN FLANK A TWO TO THREE
SNOWFALL WHERE ADVISORIES CONTINUE UNTIL 10 AM. THE WARNING IN
POCAHONTAS COUNTY...MAINLY FOR ICE...ALSO EXPIRES AT 10 AM.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS IN LIGHT W FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
SYSTEM TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM...DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH...SKIRTS SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT
AS A MAJOR SWD SHIFT IN ITS TRACK PER ALL MODELS CONTINUES. RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT AS THE WAVE PASSES...BUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT.

USED THE WRFS...HRRR AND MET FOR TEMPERATURES EARLY
ON...TRANSITIONING TO A BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV BLEND FOR LOWS AT
THE END OF THE NT TONIGHT. THE WRFS...HRRR...NAM...GFS AND ECMWF
WERE USED FOR QPF TODAY...AND THEN MAINLY THE NAM TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A QUIETER PERIOD OF WX ROUNDS OUT THE WORK WEEK. COULD SEE SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SE OH AND N WV ON WEDNESDAY
WITH AN IMPULSE AND WEAK CAA. THE UPPER TROF FINALLY SHIFTS TO THE
NE ON THURSDAY...REPLACED BY RIDGING AND WAA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO MAKE A RUN TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTY S WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK...STILL A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD
WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES. 

HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
GREAT LAKES.  WEAK COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  ONLY
CHANCE POPS SINCE MOISTURE LIMITED THIS FAR SOUTH.

FRONTS STALL OUT TO OUR SOUTH LATE IN THE EXTENDED...SO CONFIDENCE
DROP FOR MONDAY...BUT CURRENTLY KEEPING DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN WITH IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER MOVES EAST AS
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE GOES BY OVERNIGHT. THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH
AND THEN CHANGE TO SLEET AND THEN SNOW BEFORE ENDING EARLY TUE
MORNING. VSBY WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TUE BUT CIGS WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET BACK ABOVE A THOUSAND FT.

STRONG S FLOW WILL SWITCH TO MODERATE W ONCE THE WAVE GOES BY
OVERNIGHT...AND THEN BE LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO NW TUE AND TUE NT.
THE STRONG S FLOW WAS NOT MAKING IT TO THE SFC EXCEPT FOR THE
RIDGES...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT BKW. THERE WILL BE MORE
MIXING AND HENCE SOME MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN THE WAKE OF THE
WAVE...RESULTING IN W WINDS TUE BUT STILL LIGHT...AND BECOMING
VARIABLE TO CALM TUE NT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW 

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR MAY BE MORE OR LESS PREVALENT THAN
FORECAST DUE TO THE VARIABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH BEING DIRECTLY
UNDER THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    TUE 02/16/16
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EST 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
PROLONGED IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN MID OHIO VALLEY
AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO WED.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE TEMPERATURE ISSUE AT THE CKB ASOS HAS BEEN FIXED. 

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>026-029>031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ046.
OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ075-076-
     085>087.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR 
     OHZ066-067-083-084.
KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/30
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...TRM

EQUIPMENT...TRM