842 FXUS61 KRLX 160932 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 432 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...TAKING RAIN AND SNOW WITH IT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE AREA FIRST THING THIS MORNING...TAKING THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH IT. POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN HAD BECOME MINIMAL IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY AS SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES WERE ALL BUT ERADICATED THERE...AND COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL ARRIVE IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE THIS MORNING. COLDER AIR SFC AND ALOFT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WAS LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE...YET JUST ENOUGH TO BRING ABOUT A MIXING WITH AND THEN CHANGING BACK TO SNOW AS FAR E AS HTS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD REACH CRW BY DAYBREAK WHILE A SNOW LEVEL FORMS AND LOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE CHANGE OVER WAS FAST ENOUGH ON OUR WRN FLANK A TWO TO THREE SNOWFALL WHERE ADVISORIES CONTINUE UNTIL 10 AM. THE WARNING IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY...MAINLY FOR ICE...ALSO EXPIRES AT 10 AM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS IN LIGHT W FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM...DRIVEN BY A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH...SKIRTS SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS A MAJOR SWD SHIFT IN ITS TRACK PER ALL MODELS CONTINUES. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT AS THE WAVE PASSES...BUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. USED THE WRFS...HRRR AND MET FOR TEMPERATURES EARLY ON...TRANSITIONING TO A BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV BLEND FOR LOWS AT THE END OF THE NT TONIGHT. THE WRFS...HRRR...NAM...GFS AND ECMWF WERE USED FOR QPF TODAY...AND THEN MAINLY THE NAM TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A QUIETER PERIOD OF WX ROUNDS OUT THE WORK WEEK. COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SE OH AND N WV ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN IMPULSE AND WEAK CAA. THE UPPER TROF FINALLY SHIFTS TO THE NE ON THURSDAY...REPLACED BY RIDGING AND WAA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MAKE A RUN TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTY S WINDS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK...STILL A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO GREAT LAKES. WEAK COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ONLY CHANCE POPS SINCE MOISTURE LIMITED THIS FAR SOUTH. FRONTS STALL OUT TO OUR SOUTH LATE IN THE EXTENDED...SO CONFIDENCE DROP FOR MONDAY...BUT CURRENTLY KEEPING DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... RAIN WITH IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER MOVES EAST AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE GOES BY OVERNIGHT. THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE TO SLEET AND THEN SNOW BEFORE ENDING EARLY TUE MORNING. VSBY WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TUE BUT CIGS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET BACK ABOVE A THOUSAND FT. STRONG S FLOW WILL SWITCH TO MODERATE W ONCE THE WAVE GOES BY OVERNIGHT...AND THEN BE LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO NW TUE AND TUE NT. THE STRONG S FLOW WAS NOT MAKING IT TO THE SFC EXCEPT FOR THE RIDGES...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT BKW. THERE WILL BE MORE MIXING AND HENCE SOME MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE...RESULTING IN W WINDS TUE BUT STILL LIGHT...AND BECOMING VARIABLE TO CALM TUE NT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR MAY BE MORE OR LESS PREVALENT THAN FORECAST DUE TO THE VARIABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH BEING DIRECTLY UNDER THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 02/16/16 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EST 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L M HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L M BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L L L M M L PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L M CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L M AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... PROLONGED IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN MID OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO WED. && .EQUIPMENT... THE TEMPERATURE ISSUE AT THE CKB ASOS HAS BEEN FIXED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011- 013>020-024>026-029>031. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ046. OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ075-076- 085>087. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-083-084. KY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/30 NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...TRM EQUIPMENT...TRM