883 
FXUS61 KRLX 030549
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1249 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
TRANQUIL JANUARY NIGHT. COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AND SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
945 PM UPDATE...

FORECAST ON TRACK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

DIFFICULT POINT TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKY...DRY AIR...
LONG NIGHT...VERSUS BOUNDARY LAYER...WINDS ALOFT BLOWING AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WARMING OVERNIGHT. TRIED TO KEEP EXPOSED MOUNTAIN RIDGES
MILDER THAN ADJACENT VALLEYS. 

AT 18Z HAVE SECONDARY/REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM SW PA TO MID OHIO
VALLEY NEAR PKB AND UNI...THEN OVER SRN MOUNTAINS BEFORE 00Z MONDAY.
INCREASED CLOUDS AND POPS A BIT FASTER NORTH TO SOUTH 18Z SUNDAY TO
00Z MONDAY...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BEST CRYSTAL GROWTH
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO NOT MATCH UP UNTIL LATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LOBE OF POLAR AIR RIDING ON AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX MAKES ITS WAY
SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES PICKING UP MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY
WRINGING SOME OUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN THE FORM OF SNOW ON
MONDAY. EVEN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT THEY MAY COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW
SQUALLS...WHICH MAY HINDER MORNING AND AFTERNOON COMMUTES ON
MONDAY. HIGHER MTN ELEVATIONS MAY EVEN PICK UP A FEW INCHES AS
COLD HIGH DGZ AIR ELEVATES SNOW RATIOS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT WHILE SKIES CLEAR GIVING A
CHILLY TO DOWNRIGHT COLD NIGHT AS THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
YEAR MAKE THEIR PRESENCE. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE HARD PRESSED
TO BREACH FREEZING ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GENERALLY USED WPC GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH A BLEND
TOWARD THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. RESULTANT GRID FIELD FROM THE BLEND
SHOWS SOME CHANGES TO LONGER TERM TRENDS. HAVE COLDER TEMPS
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES MODERATING THROUGH MID WEEK. ALSO
INCREASED POP SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK AS NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES UP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 18Z WHEN MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH FROM AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT COMBINATION. WILL
TRANSITION QUICKLY INTO MVFR CEILINGS IN THE COLD ADVECTION AND
WILL SEE WIND SWITCHES TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY.

SNOW SHOWERS COMMENCE AFTER 00Z MONDAY...AND WILL DROP TO MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT SNOW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH TODAY...MEDIUM TONIGHT.
     
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE MVFR CEILINGS AND SNOW SHOWERS
MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   SUN 01/03/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SHSN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/KTB/JW
NEAR TERM...KTB/30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...26