883 FXUS61 KRLX 030549 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1249 AM EST SUN JAN 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... TRANQUIL JANUARY NIGHT. COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AND SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 945 PM UPDATE... FORECAST ON TRACK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... DIFFICULT POINT TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKY...DRY AIR... LONG NIGHT...VERSUS BOUNDARY LAYER...WINDS ALOFT BLOWING AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING OVERNIGHT. TRIED TO KEEP EXPOSED MOUNTAIN RIDGES MILDER THAN ADJACENT VALLEYS. AT 18Z HAVE SECONDARY/REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM SW PA TO MID OHIO VALLEY NEAR PKB AND UNI...THEN OVER SRN MOUNTAINS BEFORE 00Z MONDAY. INCREASED CLOUDS AND POPS A BIT FASTER NORTH TO SOUTH 18Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BEST CRYSTAL GROWTH TEMPERATURES ALOFT DO NOT MATCH UP UNTIL LATER. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... LOBE OF POLAR AIR RIDING ON AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES PICKING UP MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY WRINGING SOME OUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN THE FORM OF SNOW ON MONDAY. EVEN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS...BUT THEY MAY COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW SQUALLS...WHICH MAY HINDER MORNING AND AFTERNOON COMMUTES ON MONDAY. HIGHER MTN ELEVATIONS MAY EVEN PICK UP A FEW INCHES AS COLD HIGH DGZ AIR ELEVATES SNOW RATIOS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT WHILE SKIES CLEAR GIVING A CHILLY TO DOWNRIGHT COLD NIGHT AS THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR MAKE THEIR PRESENCE. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO BREACH FREEZING ON TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... GENERALLY USED WPC GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH A BLEND TOWARD THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. RESULTANT GRID FIELD FROM THE BLEND SHOWS SOME CHANGES TO LONGER TERM TRENDS. HAVE COLDER TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES MODERATING THROUGH MID WEEK. ALSO INCREASED POP SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK AS NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR THROUGH 18Z WHEN MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT COMBINATION. WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY INTO MVFR CEILINGS IN THE COLD ADVECTION AND WILL SEE WIND SWITCHES TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. SNOW SHOWERS COMMENCE AFTER 00Z MONDAY...AND WILL DROP TO MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT SNOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH TODAY...MEDIUM TONIGHT. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE MVFR CEILINGS AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY VARY FROM FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 01/03/16 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H H M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H M M M M AFTER 06Z MONDAY... IFR CONDITIONS IN SHSN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/KTB/JW NEAR TERM...KTB/30 SHORT TERM...JW LONG TERM...KMC AVIATION...26