National Weather Service Raw Text Product

206 
FXUS63 KMPX 191805
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1205 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST SAT DEC 19 2015

LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUED OVERNIGHT AS WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE LOW TEMPERATURES
REMAINED ABOVE ZERO FOR THE MOST PART...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH WHAT
THE PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD FORECAST.

TODAY THE WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE...SO SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 20S NORTHEAST OF I-94...MID 20S
SOUTH OF I-94...AND NEAR 30 SOUTH OF THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY. A
FEW MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TONIGHT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS
ACROSS THE REGION AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. THIS
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAYS HIGHS.
NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST SAT DEC 19 2015

SUN-MON...A LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THRU THE FL PENINSULA...PLACING THE WFO MPX CWFA ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS RIDGE WITHIN SWLY FLOW. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE ON THE INCRS WITH THESE FEATURE...BUT THE LOW-TO-MID LEVELS
LOOK TO REMAIN RELATIVELY DRIER IN COMPARISON. A STRETCHED-OUT LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TWD THE GRT
LKS SUN. IT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
BY THE TIME IT MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE WFO MPX CWFA BY
LATE DAY SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...SO PRECIP CHCS WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE AND FOR FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AND
BE MORE OF A DRIZZLE THAN BONA FIDE RAIN/SNOW. THAT SAID...A
PRONOUNCED WARM AIR LAYER WILL MOVE NE IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC
LOW...WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAKE FOR ICY PRECIP /-FZDZ/ FOR
AREAS THAT DO SEE PRECIP. COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS WILL BE MEAGER...SO
ASIDE FROM THE CHC MENTION IN THE FCST FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG E OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR...WILL HOLD OFF ITS MENTION ELSEWHERE. THIS WEAK
NRN STREAM SYSTEM WILL PHASE WITH THE SRN STREAM WELL E OF THE
CWFA BY MON...ELIMINATING ITS INFLUENCE PARTICULARLY AS A BUBBLE
RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRES BOTH SLIDE ACRS THE AREA MON. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PARTIAL CLEARING ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR
MON AS COMPARED TO SUN /HIGHS DROPPING TO THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S
MONDAY FROM HIGHS 30-40 SUNDAY/.

TUE-FRI...A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED MID-TO-LATE WEEK AS
SEVERAL WEAK PACIFIC-ORIENTED SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CONUS. NO ONE SYSTEM IS PARTICULARLY STRONG AND WITH MOISTURE NOT
ALL THAT DEEP...PRECIP CHANCES ARE NO HIGHER THAN THE CHC RANGE.
THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY POTENTIAL FOR ICY PRECIPITATION IN
THE EXTENDED FCST SO ANY P-TYPE CONCERNS WILL BE CONFINED TO
-RA/-SN. THERE DOES LOOK TO BE SOME EVIDENCE OF A POTENT LONGWAVE
TROF COMING ONSHORE THE WRN CONUS COAST ON CHRISTMAS DAY...BUT NOT
BE IMPACTFUL ENOUGH BY THEN TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OF ANY
CONSEQUENCE SINCE IT LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL W/SW OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE...THE UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN THE UPR 20S THROUGH THE 30S...
OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF -RA AND -SN...AND LITTLE /IF ANY/ OF THE -SN
STICKING AROUND TO MAKE FOR ANY SEMBLANCE OF A WHITE CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR TAFS IS TIMING OF MVFR AND LOWER CIGS IN LATE
TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. FOLLOWED THE SLOWER GFS/SREF TIMING IN THE
TAFS. EXPECT LOW CIGS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER NODAK TO THE
NORTH OF AN INVERTED TROUGH. THIS THROUGH DOES NOT START TO NOSE
INTO WEST CENTRAL MN UNTIL 6Z...WITH LOW CIG EXPANSION ACROSS MN
NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THEN. MAINTAINED DRY TAFS AS WELL WITH ONLY
REAL THREAT FOR PRECIP BEING DRIZZLE...THOUGH WOULD LIKE TO SEE
BETTER LIFT AND DEEPER LOW CLOUD LAYERS TO START INCLUDING THAT IN
THE TAFS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THAT HAPPENING BEING AT EAU
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WE WILL MAINTAIN A HEALTHY SOUTHEAST WIND...BUT
AS THE SFC TROUGH WORKS INTO THE AREA...WIND SPEEDS WILL START TO
DROP OFF AND GIVEN EXPECTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE...WE WILL
LIKELY SEE VSBY REDUCTIONS IN BR/HZ ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

KMSP...THERE IS A FAIR DEGREE OF SPREAD FOR WHEN LOW CIGS ARRIVE
TONIGHT...WITH ANYTHING FROM 7Z-15Z POSSIBLE. GIVEN TIMING OF THE
SFC TROUGH...FAVORED THE SLOWER GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS THE GFSLAMP
AND SREF. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIP...THOUGH MAY SEE VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WHEN THE TROUGH/FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS. 
TUE...VFR. CHC MVFR/-RASN LATE. WIND SSE AT 10-15 KTS.
WED...MVFR. CHC IFR/-RA/-SN. WIND S BCMG W 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...MPG