206 FXUS63 KMPX 191805 AFDMPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1205 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 350 AM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUED OVERNIGHT AS WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE LOW TEMPERATURES REMAINED ABOVE ZERO FOR THE MOST PART...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH WHAT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD FORECAST. TODAY THE WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE...SO SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 20S NORTHEAST OF I-94...MID 20S SOUTH OF I-94...AND NEAR 30 SOUTH OF THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY. A FEW MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TONIGHT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAYS HIGHS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 350 AM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 SUN-MON...A LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE FL PENINSULA...PLACING THE WFO MPX CWFA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS RIDGE WITHIN SWLY FLOW. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCRS WITH THESE FEATURE...BUT THE LOW-TO-MID LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN RELATIVELY DRIER IN COMPARISON. A STRETCHED-OUT LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TWD THE GRT LKS SUN. IT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BY THE TIME IT MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE WFO MPX CWFA BY LATE DAY SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...SO PRECIP CHCS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE AND FOR FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AND BE MORE OF A DRIZZLE THAN BONA FIDE RAIN/SNOW. THAT SAID...A PRONOUNCED WARM AIR LAYER WILL MOVE NE IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC LOW...WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH TO MAKE FOR ICY PRECIP /-FZDZ/ FOR AREAS THAT DO SEE PRECIP. COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS WILL BE MEAGER...SO ASIDE FROM THE CHC MENTION IN THE FCST FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG E OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR...WILL HOLD OFF ITS MENTION ELSEWHERE. THIS WEAK NRN STREAM SYSTEM WILL PHASE WITH THE SRN STREAM WELL E OF THE CWFA BY MON...ELIMINATING ITS INFLUENCE PARTICULARLY AS A BUBBLE RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRES BOTH SLIDE ACRS THE AREA MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN PARTIAL CLEARING ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR MON AS COMPARED TO SUN /HIGHS DROPPING TO THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S MONDAY FROM HIGHS 30-40 SUNDAY/. TUE-FRI...A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED MID-TO-LATE WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK PACIFIC-ORIENTED SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. NO ONE SYSTEM IS PARTICULARLY STRONG AND WITH MOISTURE NOT ALL THAT DEEP...PRECIP CHANCES ARE NO HIGHER THAN THE CHC RANGE. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY POTENTIAL FOR ICY PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED FCST SO ANY P-TYPE CONCERNS WILL BE CONFINED TO -RA/-SN. THERE DOES LOOK TO BE SOME EVIDENCE OF A POTENT LONGWAVE TROF COMING ONSHORE THE WRN CONUS COAST ON CHRISTMAS DAY...BUT NOT BE IMPACTFUL ENOUGH BY THEN TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OF ANY CONSEQUENCE SINCE IT LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL W/SW OF THE AREA. THEREFORE...THE UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN THE UPR 20S THROUGH THE 30S... OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF -RA AND -SN...AND LITTLE /IF ANY/ OF THE -SN STICKING AROUND TO MAKE FOR ANY SEMBLANCE OF A WHITE CHRISTMAS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015 MAIN CONCERN FOR TAFS IS TIMING OF MVFR AND LOWER CIGS IN LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. FOLLOWED THE SLOWER GFS/SREF TIMING IN THE TAFS. EXPECT LOW CIGS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER NODAK TO THE NORTH OF AN INVERTED TROUGH. THIS THROUGH DOES NOT START TO NOSE INTO WEST CENTRAL MN UNTIL 6Z...WITH LOW CIG EXPANSION ACROSS MN NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THEN. MAINTAINED DRY TAFS AS WELL WITH ONLY REAL THREAT FOR PRECIP BEING DRIZZLE...THOUGH WOULD LIKE TO SEE BETTER LIFT AND DEEPER LOW CLOUD LAYERS TO START INCLUDING THAT IN THE TAFS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THAT HAPPENING BEING AT EAU SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WE WILL MAINTAIN A HEALTHY SOUTHEAST WIND...BUT AS THE SFC TROUGH WORKS INTO THE AREA...WIND SPEEDS WILL START TO DROP OFF AND GIVEN EXPECTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE...WE WILL LIKELY SEE VSBY REDUCTIONS IN BR/HZ ALONG THE BOUNDARY. KMSP...THERE IS A FAIR DEGREE OF SPREAD FOR WHEN LOW CIGS ARRIVE TONIGHT...WITH ANYTHING FROM 7Z-15Z POSSIBLE. GIVEN TIMING OF THE SFC TROUGH...FAVORED THE SLOWER GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS THE GFSLAMP AND SREF. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIP...THOUGH MAY SEE VSBY RESTRICTIONS WHEN THE TROUGH/FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...MVFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS. TUE...VFR. CHC MVFR/-RASN LATE. WIND SSE AT 10-15 KTS. WED...MVFR. CHC IFR/-RA/-SN. WIND S BCMG W 10 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JRB LONG TERM...JPC AVIATION...MPG