533 
FXUS63 KIND 072031
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
331 PM EST MON DEC 7 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EST MON DEC 7 2015

A ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN BECOME MORE 
AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. AND AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BY SATURDAY.  THIS 
UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING WETTER WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT 
WEEK...ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFR ON TIMING.  IN THE SHORT TERM HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS OUR REGION WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AND A VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH
WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER AROUND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EST MON DEC 7 2015

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS OUR REGION...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND 
FOG WERE TRAPPED ACROSS SOME AREAS UNDER A LOW LEVEL INVERSION.  SATELLITE
INDICATED SOME CLEARING OVER EASTERN SECTIONS...WHILE LOW CLOUDS COTINUED 
WEST HALF WITH FOG STILL OCCURRING OVER NORTHWEST PARTS OF OUR REGION.  
VISIBILITIES WERE STARTING TO IMPROVE THERE HOWEVER. 

TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE TRICKY IN REGARDS TO FOG. FOG MAY INCREASE 
RAPIDLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING.  BUT WINDS WILL 
INCREASE SOME OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST AND THIS 
IN TURN WILL LIMIT FOG.  MOST LIKELY IF DENSE OCCURS...IT WILL BE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH BETTER VISIBILITIES LATER TONIGHT.   WILL NOT ISSUE ANY 
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR SITUATION IN CASE ONE IS NEEDED LATER
FOR THE GRIDS WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TONIGHT AND 
PATCHY FOG IN THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT.   

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE WE MAY TREND TOWARDS MORE LOW STRATUS RATHER THAN 
FOG LATER TONIGHT WITH MORE MIXING.  WENT WITH LOW IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S
OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTH WHICH IS NEAR OR 
SLIGHTLY BELOW A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EST MON DEC 7 2015

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRATUS MOST AREAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
WHICH WILL SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A MODERATE 
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WEAKENING INVERSION.  WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND
WITH CLOUDS IN THE MORNING AND SOME SUN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUR WAY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND 
WEDNESDAY.  THE NAM/GFS INDICATE VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHILE THE EURO HAS TO CONTINUED TO BE MUCH WETTER.
WILL GO WITH A BLEND AND MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST
HALF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE POPS ALL BUT FAR WEST WEDNESDAY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE 
WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THURSDAY WILL BE 
DRY AND WARMER AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW REDEVELOPS ALONG WITH A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. 

WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 
40S TUESDAY NIGHT AND AROUND 40 WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH I STAYED PRETTY 
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EST MON DEC 7 2015

MODELS DEPICT A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND PROGRESSES EAST
OVER THE WEEKEND. ZONAL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO BROAD RIDGING BY
SATURDAY OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...RESULTING IN
UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 

WEAK CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL START THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A MUCH
STRONGER SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER MODELS ARE IN A HUGE DISAGREEMENT THIS CYCLE
WITH REGARD TO TIMING. THE GFS MOVES THIS SYSTEM THROUGH SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EURO LAGGING NEARLY A DAY
BEHIND...AND DIFFERING WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/S TRACK. THE
THINKING NOW IS THAT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES. ADDED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDER ON SUNDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. DUE TO POOR MODEL CONTINUITY AND
CONSISTENCY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHICH DAY(S) ARE MOST
LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY THIS SYSTEM. GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE
INITIALIZATION WITH A FEW MINOR MODIFICATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 07/2100Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 327 PM EST MON DEC 7 2015

UPDATE...
CONDITIONS AT KIND HAVE DETERIORATED FROM HIGH END IFR TO LOW END
IFR...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT THAT LEVEL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN FOR THE MOST PART DUE TO FOG AND LOW
STRATUS.

STRATUS DECK WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 500 AND 1500FT REMAINS ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA. GUIDANCE WAS CORRECT IN STEADILY
STRENGTHENING A SHALLOW INVERSION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN THIS STRATUS REMAINING FOR MUCH...IF NOT ALL OF THE
REST OF THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN...TRENDED TOWARDS PERSISTENCE UNDER
SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN RECENT DAYS WITH CLOUDS LINGERING ALL DAY
AND INTO TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY LATE
TONIGHT...THEN PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KT OR SLIGHTLY LESS BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL AIDE IN FINALLY BREAKING OUT THE LOW
LEVEL STRATUS DECK. 

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/TDUD