533 FXUS63 KIND 072031 AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 331 PM EST MON DEC 7 2015 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 327 PM EST MON DEC 7 2015 A ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BY SATURDAY. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING WETTER WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFR ON TIMING. IN THE SHORT TERM HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR REGION WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AND A VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER AROUND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... ISSUED AT 327 PM EST MON DEC 7 2015 A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS OUR REGION...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE TRAPPED ACROSS SOME AREAS UNDER A LOW LEVEL INVERSION. SATELLITE INDICATED SOME CLEARING OVER EASTERN SECTIONS...WHILE LOW CLOUDS COTINUED WEST HALF WITH FOG STILL OCCURRING OVER NORTHWEST PARTS OF OUR REGION. VISIBILITIES WERE STARTING TO IMPROVE THERE HOWEVER. TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE TRICKY IN REGARDS TO FOG. FOG MAY INCREASE RAPIDLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS THIS EVENING. BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST AND THIS IN TURN WILL LIMIT FOG. MOST LIKELY IF DENSE OCCURS...IT WILL BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH BETTER VISIBILITIES LATER TONIGHT. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR SITUATION IN CASE ONE IS NEEDED LATER FOR THE GRIDS WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TONIGHT AND PATCHY FOG IN THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE WE MAY TREND TOWARDS MORE LOW STRATUS RATHER THAN FOG LATER TONIGHT WITH MORE MIXING. WENT WITH LOW IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO THE UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTH WHICH IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW A MOS BLEND. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... ISSUED AT 327 PM EST MON DEC 7 2015 MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRATUS MOST AREAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WEAKENING INVERSION. WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND WITH CLOUDS IN THE MORNING AND SOME SUN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUR WAY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE NAM/GFS INDICATE VERY LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHILE THE EURO HAS TO CONTINUED TO BE MUCH WETTER. WILL GO WITH A BLEND AND MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST HALF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE POPS ALL BUT FAR WEST WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW REDEVELOPS ALONG WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S TUESDAY NIGHT AND AROUND 40 WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH I STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 235 PM EST MON DEC 7 2015 MODELS DEPICT A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND PROGRESSES EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. ZONAL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO BROAD RIDGING BY SATURDAY OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL START THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER MODELS ARE IN A HUGE DISAGREEMENT THIS CYCLE WITH REGARD TO TIMING. THE GFS MOVES THIS SYSTEM THROUGH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EURO LAGGING NEARLY A DAY BEHIND...AND DIFFERING WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/S TRACK. THE THINKING NOW IS THAT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES. ADDED IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER ON SUNDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO POOR MODEL CONTINUITY AND CONSISTENCY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHICH DAY(S) ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY THIS SYSTEM. GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE INITIALIZATION WITH A FEW MINOR MODIFICATIONS. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 07/2100Z TAF UPDATE/... ISSUED AT 327 PM EST MON DEC 7 2015 UPDATE... CONDITIONS AT KIND HAVE DETERIORATED FROM HIGH END IFR TO LOW END IFR...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT THAT LEVEL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN FOR THE MOST PART DUE TO FOG AND LOW STRATUS. STRATUS DECK WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 500 AND 1500FT REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA. GUIDANCE WAS CORRECT IN STEADILY STRENGTHENING A SHALLOW INVERSION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH HAS RESULTED IN THIS STRATUS REMAINING FOR MUCH...IF NOT ALL OF THE REST OF THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN...TRENDED TOWARDS PERSISTENCE UNDER SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN RECENT DAYS WITH CLOUDS LINGERING ALL DAY AND INTO TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY LATE TONIGHT...THEN PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KT OR SLIGHTLY LESS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL AIDE IN FINALLY BREAKING OUT THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH NEAR TERM...JH SHORT TERM...JH LONG TERM....SMF AVIATION...SMF/TDUD