399 
FXUS64 KMAF 201059
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
459 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.  

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through this evening, but a strong cold
front will move south through the area tonight.  Blowing dust may
drop visibility to MVFR at some area terminals, but will not include
any reduction at this time since it will be so late in the forecast
period.  Gusty northerly winds will persist through most of the day
Saturday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 342 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2015/ 

Major weather changes headed for the region this weekend as we see
the coldest air of the season so far. Before we see that though,
temperatures will warm significantly this afternoon amid downslope
southwesterly winds and sfc pressure falls. Meanwhile, a shortwave
will drop south across the Northern Plains later today bringing with
it a strong cold front. This front is expected to arrive late
tonight and quickly clear the CWA by sunrise Saturday. Pressure
gradient and pressure rises are quite impressive behind the front.
Given this, expect advisory level winds over most of the area for at
least a few hours early Saturday morning. High winds still look
likely at Guadalupe Pass as well so will upgrade to a High Wind
Warning there and will opt to issue a wind advisory for the rest
of the region. The strong winds will likely bring some patchy
blowing dust into the area so will include in the forecast through
Saturday morning.

After a very cool Saturday our next concern is the first hard freeze
of the season expected Sunday morning. Light winds, clear skies, and
dewpoints well into the teens will allow for ideal radiational
cooling. This will be the first hard freeze of the season for many
as temperatures fall into the 20's and even teens. We have issued a
Freeze Watch for all locations that have not had a hard freeze yet
this year. This includes much of the Permian Basin, Trans Pecos, and
Big Bend. 

Flow becomes more zonal early next week which should allow for a
nice warm-up with temperatures rising back above normal. A weak
disturbance and moisture from Tropical Storm Rick (great name by the
way) may bring bring a chance of showers to the Big Bend Tuesday.
Southwesterly flow aloft will increase around the Thanksgiving
holiday, bringing a chance for precip. Temperatures look to be well
above freezing so precip should remain all liquid.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  72  37  47  26  /   0   0   0   0 
CARLSBAD NM                    74  36  47  23  /   0   0   0   0 
DRYDEN TX                      75  47  56  33  /   0   0   0   0 
FORT STOCKTON TX               78  40  49  29  /   0   0   0   0 
GUADALUPE PASS TX              67  32  41  28  /   0   0   0   0 
HOBBS NM                       70  30  45  23  /   0   0   0   0 
MARFA TX                       73  31  46  19  /   0   0   0   0 
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        73  38  48  25  /   0   0   0   0 
ODESSA TX                      72  39  48  27  /   0   0   0   0 
WINK TX                        74  38  50  26  /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Freeze Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning FOR 
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Southeast 
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ...Southern Lea County.

     Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM MST Saturday FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Guadalupe Mountains 
     of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southeast Plains/BLM 
     Roswell/LNZ...Southern Lea County.

TX...Freeze Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning FOR 
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...
     Crane...Dawson...Ector...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...
     Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Presidio Valley...
     Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...
     Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.

     Wind Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Saturday FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...Crane...
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...
     Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin...
     Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and 
     Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and 
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM MST Saturday 
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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