399 FXUS64 KMAF 201059 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 459 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2015 .DISCUSSION... The latest Aviation Discussion is included below. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail through this evening, but a strong cold front will move south through the area tonight. Blowing dust may drop visibility to MVFR at some area terminals, but will not include any reduction at this time since it will be so late in the forecast period. Gusty northerly winds will persist through most of the day Saturday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 342 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2015/ Major weather changes headed for the region this weekend as we see the coldest air of the season so far. Before we see that though, temperatures will warm significantly this afternoon amid downslope southwesterly winds and sfc pressure falls. Meanwhile, a shortwave will drop south across the Northern Plains later today bringing with it a strong cold front. This front is expected to arrive late tonight and quickly clear the CWA by sunrise Saturday. Pressure gradient and pressure rises are quite impressive behind the front. Given this, expect advisory level winds over most of the area for at least a few hours early Saturday morning. High winds still look likely at Guadalupe Pass as well so will upgrade to a High Wind Warning there and will opt to issue a wind advisory for the rest of the region. The strong winds will likely bring some patchy blowing dust into the area so will include in the forecast through Saturday morning. After a very cool Saturday our next concern is the first hard freeze of the season expected Sunday morning. Light winds, clear skies, and dewpoints well into the teens will allow for ideal radiational cooling. This will be the first hard freeze of the season for many as temperatures fall into the 20's and even teens. We have issued a Freeze Watch for all locations that have not had a hard freeze yet this year. This includes much of the Permian Basin, Trans Pecos, and Big Bend. Flow becomes more zonal early next week which should allow for a nice warm-up with temperatures rising back above normal. A weak disturbance and moisture from Tropical Storm Rick (great name by the way) may bring bring a chance of showers to the Big Bend Tuesday. Southwesterly flow aloft will increase around the Thanksgiving holiday, bringing a chance for precip. Temperatures look to be well above freezing so precip should remain all liquid. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BIG SPRING TX 72 37 47 26 / 0 0 0 0 CARLSBAD NM 74 36 47 23 / 0 0 0 0 DRYDEN TX 75 47 56 33 / 0 0 0 0 FORT STOCKTON TX 78 40 49 29 / 0 0 0 0 GUADALUPE PASS TX 67 32 41 28 / 0 0 0 0 HOBBS NM 70 30 45 23 / 0 0 0 0 MARFA TX 73 31 46 19 / 0 0 0 0 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 73 38 48 25 / 0 0 0 0 ODESSA TX 72 39 48 27 / 0 0 0 0 WINK TX 74 38 50 26 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...Freeze Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ...Southern Lea County. Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM MST Saturday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ...Southern Lea County. TX...Freeze Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden... Crane...Dawson...Ector...Glasscock...Howard...Loving... Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Presidio Valley... Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry... Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward... Winkler. Wind Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Saturday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Big Bend Area...Borden...Crane... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines... Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Martin... Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler. High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM MST Saturday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains. && $$ 67/29