158 
FXUS61 KRLX 210513
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
113 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING. COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRONT WEAKENS ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTH. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES. THINKING SURFACE INVERSION OVERNIGHT...WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG AS 24 HOURS AGO...MAYBE SOME 10 DEGS VARIATION
BETWEEN EXPOSED HILLS/RIDGES VERSUS NEARBY SHELTERED VALLEYS.

DID MENTION A FEW AREAS OF FOG IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS 
INCLUDING THE SRN WV COAL FIELDS...SINCE DEW POINTS ARE HIGHER.
PINEVILLE WV DEW POINT ABOVE 40 DEGS TUE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WV THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND WEAKENING
CHARACTERISTICS OF THIS FRONT.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE
FRONT RETURNING A DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES THURSDAY
UNDER SOUTHWEST WINDS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

WENT CLOSER TO THE NBM AND SUPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. UNSETTLED WEATHER TO AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT...WILL
SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. TIMING OF THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE TRICKY THIS FAR OUT. MODELS INDICATING COLD
AIR ONCE AGAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED FOR MOST TAF SITES...WITH EXCEPTION OF SOME VALLEY
FOG FORMING EARLY THIS MORNING. SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ON JUST HOW
DENSE THE FOG WILL GET IN THE MOUNTAIN AND COAL FIELD
VALLEYS...BUT FOR NOW KEPT MVFR AT EKN. MAY GET FOG AT CRW
TOO...BUT STUCK WITH LAMP GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS THINGS AT 6 MILES. 
OTHERWISE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH A MID DECK
EVENTUALLY MOVING IN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE OF VALLEY FOG IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS MAY VARY FROM FORECAST FOR 08Z TO 12Z TUESDAY. CRW MAY 
BRIEFLY GO LOWER THAN FORECAST. 

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             WED 10/21/15
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
SOME IFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP NEAR FRONT IN THE WV MOUNTAINS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/JW
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...MZ