158 FXUS61 KRLX 210513 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 113 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING. COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT. FRONT WEAKENS ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTH. DEEPER MOISTURE AND SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... NO MAJOR CHANGES. THINKING SURFACE INVERSION OVERNIGHT...WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS 24 HOURS AGO...MAYBE SOME 10 DEGS VARIATION BETWEEN EXPOSED HILLS/RIDGES VERSUS NEARBY SHELTERED VALLEYS. DID MENTION A FEW AREAS OF FOG IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS INCLUDING THE SRN WV COAL FIELDS...SINCE DEW POINTS ARE HIGHER. PINEVILLE WV DEW POINT ABOVE 40 DEGS TUE EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WV THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND WEAKENING CHARACTERISTICS OF THIS FRONT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT RETURNING A DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES THURSDAY UNDER SOUTHWEST WINDS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HOWEVER...NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WENT CLOSER TO THE NBM AND SUPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. UNSETTLED WEATHER TO AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT...WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL BE TRICKY THIS FAR OUT. MODELS INDICATING COLD AIR ONCE AGAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR EXPECTED FOR MOST TAF SITES...WITH EXCEPTION OF SOME VALLEY FOG FORMING EARLY THIS MORNING. SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ON JUST HOW DENSE THE FOG WILL GET IN THE MOUNTAIN AND COAL FIELD VALLEYS...BUT FOR NOW KEPT MVFR AT EKN. MAY GET FOG AT CRW TOO...BUT STUCK WITH LAMP GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS THINGS AT 6 MILES. OTHERWISE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH A MID DECK EVENTUALLY MOVING IN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE OF VALLEY FOG IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS MAY VARY FROM FORECAST FOR 08Z TO 12Z TUESDAY. CRW MAY BRIEFLY GO LOWER THAN FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 10/21/15 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M L L H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... SOME IFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP NEAR FRONT IN THE WV MOUNTAINS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/JW NEAR TERM...KTB SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...JS AVIATION...MZ