567 
FXUS61 KRLX 050634
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
234 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW FADES THROUGH MONDAY WITH MOISTURE
DECREASING. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY...COMFORTABLE WEATHER FOR
MOST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH A COLD FRONT TOWARDS FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ELIMINATE LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
1045 PM UPDATE...
LOWERED LOWS IN THE NRN MOUNTAINS A BIT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
FCST OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

745 PM UPDATE...
UPDATED THE SKY FCST...WITH MORE CLOUD INTO THE OVERNIGHT BUT LESS
BY MON MORNING. THIS MAY ALLOW VALLEY FOG TO FORM AT THE LAST
MINUTE. ALSO ADDED DENSE VALLEY FOG FOR TUE MORNING UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE WITH ITS CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND.

PREV DISCN...
THE SUN IS FINALLY PEAKING OUT IN MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS DRIER
AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. MOUNTAINS ARE PROTECTING US FROM THE
DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN ALL PLACES EXCEPT NEAR THE CREST WHERE
SOME SEEPAGE IS OCCURRING. REMOVED ALMOST ALL PRECIP CHANCES
EXCEPT NEAR MOUNTAIN CRESTS. EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP IN AND AROUND RIVERS
TONIGHT AS FLOW WEAKENS AND BREAKS ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIVE
COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON TUESDAY WITH A FEW
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME ONLY EXPECT SOME ENHANCEMENT IN
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. THE CURRENT MODEL
RUNS BRING PRECIPITATION BY 12Z FRIDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING INSTABILITY
WITH THE FRONT BUT WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING THUNDER UNTIL THE MORE
FAVORABLE AFTERNOON TIMES WITH HEATING.  

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...GFS...ECMWF
MEAN AND GEFS MEAN. THIS WOULD PROVIDE HIGH PRESSURE ON
THURSDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF MEAN. WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A SHORT WAVE AND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...KEPT SOME POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. SFC
OBS INDICATE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES AFFECTING
BKW UNDER NORTHEAST FLOW. EXPECT THESE CEILINGS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
12Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART OF THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY WARM RIVER WATERS COULD
PRODUCE RIVER DENSE FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. CODED IFR/LIFR
VISIBILITIES AT ALL SITES EXCEPT AT BKW WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL
PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING. 

ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 12-13Z LEADING TO WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WHERE SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE COULD KEEP MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH MID MORNING. 

LIGHT E TO NE SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT SE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE LOWLANDS MONDAY.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
         
     
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF VALLEY FOG MAY VARY OVERNIGHT INTO
MON MORNING. CIGS MAY VARY OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING...MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             MON 10/05/15
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    M    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
DENSE VALLEY FOG LIKELY TUE MORNING...AND TO LESSER AND LESSER
DEGREES THE FOLLOWING TWO OVERNIGHTS AND EARLY MORNINGS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM/JW
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ