567 FXUS61 KRLX 050634 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 234 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COOL MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW FADES THROUGH MONDAY WITH MOISTURE DECREASING. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY...COMFORTABLE WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH A COLD FRONT TOWARDS FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ELIMINATE LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... 1045 PM UPDATE... LOWERED LOWS IN THE NRN MOUNTAINS A BIT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. FCST OTHERWISE ON TRACK. 745 PM UPDATE... UPDATED THE SKY FCST...WITH MORE CLOUD INTO THE OVERNIGHT BUT LESS BY MON MORNING. THIS MAY ALLOW VALLEY FOG TO FORM AT THE LAST MINUTE. ALSO ADDED DENSE VALLEY FOG FOR TUE MORNING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH ITS CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND. PREV DISCN... THE SUN IS FINALLY PEAKING OUT IN MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. MOUNTAINS ARE PROTECTING US FROM THE DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN ALL PLACES EXCEPT NEAR THE CREST WHERE SOME SEEPAGE IS OCCURRING. REMOVED ALMOST ALL PRECIP CHANCES EXCEPT NEAR MOUNTAIN CRESTS. EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP IN AND AROUND RIVERS TONIGHT AS FLOW WEAKENS AND BREAKS ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIVE COOLING. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON TUESDAY WITH A FEW UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME ONLY EXPECT SOME ENHANCEMENT IN CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS BRING PRECIPITATION BY 12Z FRIDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONT BUT WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING THUNDER UNTIL THE MORE FAVORABLE AFTERNOON TIMES WITH HEATING. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...GFS...ECMWF MEAN AND GEFS MEAN. THIS WOULD PROVIDE HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF MEAN. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHORT WAVE AND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...KEPT SOME POPS. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. SFC OBS INDICATE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES AFFECTING BKW UNDER NORTHEAST FLOW. EXPECT THESE CEILINGS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY WARM RIVER WATERS COULD PRODUCE RIVER DENSE FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. CODED IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES AT ALL SITES EXCEPT AT BKW WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT FOG FROM FORMING. ANY FOG SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 12-13Z LEADING TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WHERE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE COULD KEEP MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH MID MORNING. LIGHT E TO NE SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT SE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE LOWLANDS MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF VALLEY FOG MAY VARY OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING. CIGS MAY VARY OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 10/05/15 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M L L L M H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M L L L L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M L L L L L L L H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M L L L M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M L M H AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... DENSE VALLEY FOG LIKELY TUE MORNING...AND TO LESSER AND LESSER DEGREES THE FOLLOWING TWO OVERNIGHTS AND EARLY MORNINGS. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM/JW SHORT TERM...FB LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...ARJ