825 
FXUS61 KRLX 071745
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
145 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TOMORROW...AS AN WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  THE FRONT CROSSES THURSDAY. A SECOND
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGHT TONIGHT.
THIS RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WEAK
COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE CWA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP WEDNESDAY MORNING. OUT
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
MORE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND SLIGHT CHC POPS TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. WITH
ONLY SCT CONVECTION OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO...GROUND DRYING OUT
AND RIDGE OVER US...THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH INCREASING 
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE 
EAST...WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA AT THE START OF THE 
PERIOD. MOISTURE CREEPING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL PROVIDE FOR A 
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE 
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE 
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OUT AHEAD OF 
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE OHIO RIVER 
VICINITY BY THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE INCREASINGLY 
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ON WEDNESDAY WILL CREATE MORE NUMEROUS 
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAN IN RECENT DAYS...AND WITH THE 
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR...PWS PROGGED TO RISE TO OVER 1.7 
INCHES...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY 
DOWNPOURS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG STORM...BUT THE BEST 
DYNAMICS AT THIS POINT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND 
WEST OF THE REGION. FRONT MAY BRIEFLY STALL OUT ACROSS THE CWA ON 
THURSDAY...BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE LONG 
TERM PERIOD...BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BY WEDNESDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY CARRY UPPER 
DISTURBANCES OVER THIS INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS...TO ALLOW MOST 
AREAS TO SEE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL SEE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH BETTER
DYNAMICS FROM THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE.
HIGH TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL ACTUALLY BE A BIT COOLER EACH DAY WITH
THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AND WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN RELITIVELY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH MFVR/IFR FOG FORMING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CIGS/VSBYS QUICKLY GO BACK TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
     
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR/IFR FOG FORMATION MAY VARY
OVERNIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
DENSE VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND
PERHAPS ALONG THE ELK AND UPPER KANAWHA RIVERS EARLY WED MORNING.
IFR IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ADVANCING EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/ARJ
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JS