825 FXUS61 KRLX 071745 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 145 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TOMORROW...AS AN WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT CROSSES THURSDAY. A SECOND FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGHT TONIGHT. THIS RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP WEDNESDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. MORE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND SLIGHT CHC POPS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. WITH ONLY SCT CONVECTION OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO...GROUND DRYING OUT AND RIDGE OVER US...THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS ON THE WARM SIDE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... CONTINUED WARM AND MUGGY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST...WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MOISTURE CREEPING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL PROVIDE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE OHIO RIVER VICINITY BY THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ON WEDNESDAY WILL CREATE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAN IN RECENT DAYS...AND WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR...PWS PROGGED TO RISE TO OVER 1.7 INCHES...ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG STORM...BUT THE BEST DYNAMICS AT THIS POINT LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. FRONT MAY BRIEFLY STALL OUT ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY...BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BY FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... BY WEDNESDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY CARRY UPPER DISTURBANCES OVER THIS INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS...TO ALLOW MOST AREAS TO SEE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SEE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH BETTER DYNAMICS FROM THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE. HIGH TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL ACTUALLY BE A BIT COOLER EACH DAY WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS AND WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN RELITIVELY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH MFVR/IFR FOG FORMING AFTER MIDNIGHT. CIGS/VSBYS QUICKLY GO BACK TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR/IFR FOG FORMATION MAY VARY OVERNIGHT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... DENSE VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND PERHAPS ALONG THE ELK AND UPPER KANAWHA RIVERS EARLY WED MORNING. IFR IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ADVANCING EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/ARJ NEAR TERM...JS SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...JS