290 
FXUS64 KHGX 071137
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
637 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF A LAND
BREEZE STRETCHING FROM NEAR GALVESTON SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF.
COULD SEE TEMPO SHRA AT GLS THIS MORNING... WITH A POSSIBILTY FOR
MVFR VISIBILITY IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. OTHERWISE... MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES FROM PATCHY FOG SLOWER TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING WITH
HIGHER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS IN PLACE AND ONLY ADVERTISING TEMPO
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR AT CXO/SGR/LBX. SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW IFR
CIGS SLOWLY PUSHING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE HILL COUNTRY TOWARDS CLL
AND MAINTAINING IFR MENTION FOR THAT TERMINAL. ALL TERMINALS
EXPECTED TO BE VFR AROUND 15Z... WITH TEMPORARY VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY.

HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY IN COVERAGE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON... CREATING A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE 18-00Z
TIME PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE THAT HELPED SUPPRESS MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION YESTERDAY LOOKS TO MOVE FARTHER WEST TODAY AND WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE INLAND TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UNDER 10
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
RADAR WAS QUIET THIS MORNING AT 430 FOR A CHANGE BUT NOW A FEW
SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LANDBREEZE FROM SABINE
PASS TO GALVESTON. HIGH RES MODELS HAVE PEGGED THIS AREA FOR RAPID
DEVELOPMENT AND THIS APPEARS TO BE COURSE WE ARE ON AT THIS TIME.
HAVE ADJUSTED UP RAIN CHANCES TODAY NEAR THE COAST. SOME PATCHY
LIGHT FOG ONGOING AND THIS WILL PROBABLY BECOME A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD AND MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF DENSE FOG. WILL
MONITOR AGAIN THIS MORNING FOR A SHORT FUSE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

UPPER RIDGING OVER TX/OK WITH A TROUGH FROM NC-AL-EASTERN GULF
WILL KEEP THE FLOW OVER SETX OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY AND TUESDAY AS
THE TROUGH DIPS DOWN INTO THE GULF AND SHIFTS WESTWARD LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH HELPS WITH ADVECTING IN DRIER AIR
ALOFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
IN THE EASTERN AREAS SHIFTING WESTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
DRIER AIR INFILTRATING FROM THE NORTHEAST OUT OVER THE AREA
TUESDAY SHOULD HELP TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES BUT IT WILL BE SHORT
LIVED. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED FROM FRIDAY TO THURSDAY FOR
GREATER RAIN CHANCES AS NW FLOW ALOFT PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTH TEXAS AND POSSIBLY SETX (OR AT LEAST A PREFRONTAL TROUGH)
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS POOLED OVER THE AREA WITH PW NEAR 2.2" AND
WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENCE THURSDAY CAN EXPECT A HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE RAINFALL AND WILL
PROBABLY END UP WITH SOME WEST TO EAST BANDS OF GREATER
ACCUMULATIONS. FRIDAY THE FRONT SHOULD BE STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA WITH RAIN THREAT SHIFTING SOUTHWARD PROBABLY OUT INTO THE
GULF WHERE BETTER SUPPORT ALOFT SETS UP. THEN ON SATURDAY THE
FRONT GETS ANOTHER NUDGE SOUTHWARD AS S/W ROTATES AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES DEEPER TROUGH AXIS. EXPECT THAT DRIER AIR PUSHES WELL
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
AREAS WITH RAIN CHANCES MUCH LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGHER
OVER THE GULF. SUNDAY THINGS BEGIN TO GET CONCERNING... MODELS
HAVE BEEN HAVING SOME ISSUES WITH DEVELOPMENT OF TROUGHING ALOFT
OVER TX/MEXICO THE LAST FEW RUNS...DOING SO THEN BACKING OFF. NOW
BOTH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEGUN TO COALESCE TOWARDS A VERY WET
SOLUTION STARTING LATE NEXT SUNDAY FOR THE GFS EXPANDING NORTHWARD
INTO SETX EARLY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS 6
HOURS OR SO SLOWER BUT MORE INTENSE...PW SURGING TO 2.5-2.6"!
BOTH MODELS DEVELOP A VERY ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (PERHAPS
INITIALLY A COASTAL TROUGH ON THE TAIL END OF THE REMNANT FRONT)
THAT QUICKLY WRAPS UP AND MOVES INTO SETX. THIS SCENARIO MAY HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. STAY TUNED.

45

MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE EASTERN
WATERS/GALVESTON BAY THIS MORNING AS A LAND BREEZE MOVES INTO THE
GULF... WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID-WEEK. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORM. 

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH/STALL NEAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AS TROPICAL MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. THE
STORMY PERIOD COULD CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS A
COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE MEXICAN COAST AND EJECTS NORTH
TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST NEXT SUNDAY/MONDAY... WITH WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS AND ELEVATED WINDS/WAVES POSSIBLE AS THIS HAPPENS.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      96  76  95  75  93 /  20  10  20  20  40 
HOUSTON (IAH)              94  75  92  75  91 /  30  10  30  10  40 
GALVESTON (GLS)            89  80  89  79  87 /  30  20  20  10  40 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...45
AVIATION/MARINE...14