290 FXUS64 KHGX 071137 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 637 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2015 .AVIATION... SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF A LAND BREEZE STRETCHING FROM NEAR GALVESTON SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF. COULD SEE TEMPO SHRA AT GLS THIS MORNING... WITH A POSSIBILTY FOR MVFR VISIBILITY IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. OTHERWISE... MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES FROM PATCHY FOG SLOWER TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING WITH HIGHER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS IN PLACE AND ONLY ADVERTISING TEMPO POTENTIAL FOR MVFR AT CXO/SGR/LBX. SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW IFR CIGS SLOWLY PUSHING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE HILL COUNTRY TOWARDS CLL AND MAINTAINING IFR MENTION FOR THAT TERMINAL. ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED TO BE VFR AROUND 15Z... WITH TEMPORARY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DIFFERS CONSIDERABLY IN COVERAGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON... CREATING A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THE 18-00Z TIME PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE THAT HELPED SUPPRESS MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION YESTERDAY LOOKS TO MOVE FARTHER WEST TODAY AND WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE INLAND TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. HUFFMAN && .PREV DISCUSSION... DISCUSSION... RADAR WAS QUIET THIS MORNING AT 430 FOR A CHANGE BUT NOW A FEW SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LANDBREEZE FROM SABINE PASS TO GALVESTON. HIGH RES MODELS HAVE PEGGED THIS AREA FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND THIS APPEARS TO BE COURSE WE ARE ON AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADJUSTED UP RAIN CHANCES TODAY NEAR THE COAST. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG ONGOING AND THIS WILL PROBABLY BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD AND MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF DENSE FOG. WILL MONITOR AGAIN THIS MORNING FOR A SHORT FUSE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. UPPER RIDGING OVER TX/OK WITH A TROUGH FROM NC-AL-EASTERN GULF WILL KEEP THE FLOW OVER SETX OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY AND TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH DIPS DOWN INTO THE GULF AND SHIFTS WESTWARD LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH HELPS WITH ADVECTING IN DRIER AIR ALOFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE EASTERN AREAS SHIFTING WESTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR INFILTRATING FROM THE NORTHEAST OUT OVER THE AREA TUESDAY SHOULD HELP TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES BUT IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED FROM FRIDAY TO THURSDAY FOR GREATER RAIN CHANCES AS NW FLOW ALOFT PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS AND POSSIBLY SETX (OR AT LEAST A PREFRONTAL TROUGH) ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS POOLED OVER THE AREA WITH PW NEAR 2.2" AND WITH INCREASING DIFFLUENCE THURSDAY CAN EXPECT A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE RAINFALL AND WILL PROBABLY END UP WITH SOME WEST TO EAST BANDS OF GREATER ACCUMULATIONS. FRIDAY THE FRONT SHOULD BE STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WITH RAIN THREAT SHIFTING SOUTHWARD PROBABLY OUT INTO THE GULF WHERE BETTER SUPPORT ALOFT SETS UP. THEN ON SATURDAY THE FRONT GETS ANOTHER NUDGE SOUTHWARD AS S/W ROTATES AROUND THE GREAT LAKES DEEPER TROUGH AXIS. EXPECT THAT DRIER AIR PUSHES WELL SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN AREAS WITH RAIN CHANCES MUCH LOWER ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGHER OVER THE GULF. SUNDAY THINGS BEGIN TO GET CONCERNING... MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING SOME ISSUES WITH DEVELOPMENT OF TROUGHING ALOFT OVER TX/MEXICO THE LAST FEW RUNS...DOING SO THEN BACKING OFF. NOW BOTH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEGUN TO COALESCE TOWARDS A VERY WET SOLUTION STARTING LATE NEXT SUNDAY FOR THE GFS EXPANDING NORTHWARD INTO SETX EARLY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS 6 HOURS OR SO SLOWER BUT MORE INTENSE...PW SURGING TO 2.5-2.6"! BOTH MODELS DEVELOP A VERY ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (PERHAPS INITIALLY A COASTAL TROUGH ON THE TAIL END OF THE REMNANT FRONT) THAT QUICKLY WRAPS UP AND MOVES INTO SETX. THIS SCENARIO MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. STAY TUNED. 45 MARINE... ONSHORE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE EASTERN WATERS/GALVESTON BAY THIS MORNING AS A LAND BREEZE MOVES INTO THE GULF... WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-WEEK. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORM. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH/STALL NEAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS TROPICAL MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. THE STORMY PERIOD COULD CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE MEXICAN COAST AND EJECTS NORTH TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST NEXT SUNDAY/MONDAY... WITH WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND ELEVATED WINDS/WAVES POSSIBLE AS THIS HAPPENS. HUFFMAN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 96 76 95 75 93 / 20 10 20 20 40 HOUSTON (IAH) 94 75 92 75 91 / 30 10 30 10 40 GALVESTON (GLS) 89 80 89 79 87 / 30 20 20 10 40 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...45 AVIATION/MARINE...14