668 
FXUS66 KLOX 111151 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
445 AM PDT SAT JUL 11 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE 
FLOW WEAKENS BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPANDING  
WESTWARD. PERSISTENT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE 
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST...EXTENDING LOCALLY INTO THE VALLEYS. 

&& 

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...

ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS A RIDGE 
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS DRIFTS WEST. A WARMING 
TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE 
HIGH CENTER MOVES INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND EXPANDS ITS INFLUENCE 
INTO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP AN ONSHORE 
FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER...ALBEIT 
WEAKER AND THINNER RESPECTIVELY. THE PACKAGE MAINTAINS A WARMING 
TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A THINNING MARINE LAYER DEPTH.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL BRUSH 
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING A LEVELING OFF OF THE WARMING 
TREND AND MAYBE SLIGHT COOLING FOR TUESDAY. THE MARINE LAYER COULD 
DEEPEN SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY AND BRING A BETTER MARINE INTRUSION INTO 
THE VALLEYS. SOME MOUNTAIN CUMULUS BUILDS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS 
THE TROUGH BRUSHES THE AREA.

500 MB HEIGHTS AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES CLIMB BETWEEN 
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD THIN AND ONSHORE FLOW 
SHOULD WEAKEN FOR LATE WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH AT 
LEAST THURSDAY IN THE PACKAGE. 

GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS START TO DIVERGE IN HANDLING THE HIGH 
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. GFS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A WARMING 
TREND LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT ECMWF SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A 
COOLING TREND DEVELOPING. GFS MODEL TRENDS WOULD LEAN TOWARDS A 
COOLER PATTERN FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AS GFS SOLUTIONS ARE 
STRENGTHENING A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WHILE HANGING ONTO  
THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS. THUS IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN...A TROUGH WOULD 
NEED TO BE CARVED OUT OVER CALIFORNIA. THE PACKAGE TRENDS A 
SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...11/1145Z.

AT 1100Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

PATCHY LOW MVFR AND LOCAL HIGH IFR CIGS WERE AFFECTING THE CENTRAL 
COAST AND THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS 
PREVAILED...WITH JUST SOME THICK HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING ACROSS THE 
REGION. ANY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE GONE BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT MORE 
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS IN COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT...EXCEPT PROBABLY 
LOW MVFR S OF PT CONCEPTION.

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z THIS MORNING. THERE 
IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CONDS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE HIGH IFR 
CATEGORY.

KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 
PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z THIS MORNING. 

&&

.MARINE...11/300 AM.

FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA 
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SCA
CONDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS TODAY AND SUN. SCA CONDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS BY LATE MON AND MON NIGHT...
WITH A CHANCE OF SCA CONDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTER WATERS. 

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...HALL

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