668 FXUS66 KLOX 111151 AAA AFDLOX SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 445 AM PDT SAT JUL 11 2015 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION .SYNOPSIS... A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPANDING WESTWARD. PERSISTENT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST...EXTENDING LOCALLY INTO THE VALLEYS. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)... ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS DRIFTS WEST. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND EXPANDS ITS INFLUENCE INTO SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP AN ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER...ALBEIT WEAKER AND THINNER RESPECTIVELY. THE PACKAGE MAINTAINS A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A THINNING MARINE LAYER DEPTH. .LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL BRUSH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING A LEVELING OFF OF THE WARMING TREND AND MAYBE SLIGHT COOLING FOR TUESDAY. THE MARINE LAYER COULD DEEPEN SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY AND BRING A BETTER MARINE INTRUSION INTO THE VALLEYS. SOME MOUNTAIN CUMULUS BUILDS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH BRUSHES THE AREA. 500 MB HEIGHTS AND 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES CLIMB BETWEEN TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD THIN AND ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD WEAKEN FOR LATE WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY IN THE PACKAGE. GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS START TO DIVERGE IN HANDLING THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. GFS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A WARMING TREND LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT ECMWF SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A COOLING TREND DEVELOPING. GFS MODEL TRENDS WOULD LEAN TOWARDS A COOLER PATTERN FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AS GFS SOLUTIONS ARE STRENGTHENING A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WHILE HANGING ONTO THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS. THUS IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN...A TROUGH WOULD NEED TO BE CARVED OUT OVER CALIFORNIA. THE PACKAGE TRENDS A SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...11/1145Z. AT 1100Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX. PATCHY LOW MVFR AND LOCAL HIGH IFR CIGS WERE AFFECTING THE CENTRAL COAST AND THE SANTA YNEZ VALLEY THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS PREVAILED...WITH JUST SOME THICK HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION. ANY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE GONE BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDS IN COASTAL SECTIONS TONIGHT...EXCEPT PROBABLY LOW MVFR S OF PT CONCEPTION. KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z THIS MORNING. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT CONDS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE HIGH IFR CATEGORY. KBUR...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z THIS MORNING. && .MARINE...11/300 AM. FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SCA CONDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY AND SUN. SCA CONDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS BY LATE MON AND MON NIGHT... WITH A CHANCE OF SCA CONDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTER WATERS. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...HALL AVIATION...DB MARINE...DB SYNOPSIS...HALL WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES