670 
FXUS64 KFWD 072029
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
329 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OVER THE GREAT 
LAKES...BUT THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS A 
SHORT WAVE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. CURRENTLY IT HAS JUST
MADE ITS WAY INTO OKLAHOMA FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS FEATURE
IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS NEAR WHATS LEFT OF A COLD
FRONT BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY JUST OUTSIDE THE
NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE MAIN THREAT THIS
CONVECTION POSES TO NORTH TEXAS IS HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING. SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY...BUT A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE
WHERE THAT BOUNDARY WILL END UP AND HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL ALONG
IT. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG ANY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. TONIGHT A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS...WHICH WILL
HELP FIRE UP MORE CONVECTION. EXPANDED HIGHER POPS SLIGHTLY
SOUTHEAST...AND KEPT POPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THIS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY
TONIGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS INDICATE
SOME PRECIPITATION WILL FALL FROM SHERMAN TO DENTON TO THE
METROPLEX OVERNIGHT. HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A ROW OF
COUNTIES EAST INTO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT.
THE TRAINING OF STORMS OVERNIGHT IS ENOUGH OF A CONCERN TO ADD THE
ADDITIONAL COUNTIES. THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL BE AN AREA TO
KEEP AN EYE ON...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY IF IT
MAKES IT THAT FAR SOUTH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN LOWERED A
FEW DEGREES DUE TO ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
CONVECTION WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT DAY. THERE
IS PRETTY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE CONVECTION WILL HAVE
MOVED OUT OF NORTH TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. TIMING FOR THE
WATCH WILL REMAIN THE SAME. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY
HAVE BEEN LOWERED BY A FEW DEGREES...MOSTLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
20.

BY THURSDAY A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN WILL RETURN WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD BACK IN...AND CONTINUE TO
BUILD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FORECAST IS DRY DURING THAT
TIME...WITH A WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

78.JG

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 105 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/
/18Z TAFS/

MAIN CHALLENGES TODAY WILL CONCERN CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND ONSET OF MVFR CIGS
TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONT NW OF THE AREA AND UPPER DISTURBANCE NEAR
WICHITA FALLS WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT OVER
THE AREA THE NEXT 24 HRS. CURRENT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO THE
WEST HAS BEEN WEAKENING A BIT WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL
WELL WEST OF THE AIRPORTS. 

LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 HIGH RES MODELS HAVE HANDLED THINGS THE BEST
SO FAR...BUT NOT PERFECTLY BY ANY MEANS. WEAK STEERING CURRENTS
AND MESOSCALE PROCESSES ALOFT ARE NOT GIVING A STRONG INDICATION
HOW...IF ANY COLD POOL INTERACTION WILL OCCUR AND BE ABLE TO SHIFT
THE FRONT MUCH FARTHER SOUTHEAST. FOR NOW HELD CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
TAF TRENDS OUTSIDE OF DELAYING VCTS TIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
SPEEDING UP THE ONSET OF MVFR CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TRYING TO PIN DOWN BEST WINDOWS FOR CONVECTION WAS DIFFICULT AND
WILL JUST HAVE TO PLAY THE WAIT AND SEE APPROACH THROUGH TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...
BECOMING 10-15 KTS THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS INCREASING AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY ONCE
AGAIN.

05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  73  88  73  93  74 /  50  30  10   5   0 
WACO, TX              74  92  73  93  74 /  10   5   0   5   0 
PARIS, TX             73  88  71  91  70 /  40  20  10   5   0 
DENTON, TX            72  84  72  92  71 /  70  50  10   5   0 
MCKINNEY, TX          75  87  72  92  71 /  50  30  10   5   0 
DALLAS, TX            73  88  74  94  75 /  40  20  10   5   0 
TERRELL, TX           76  89  73  91  73 /  30  10   5   5   0 
CORSICANA, TX         76  91  75  92  73 /  10   5   0   5   0 
TEMPLE, TX            73  91  73  92  71 /  10   5   0   5   0 
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  85  71  91  69 /  80  50  10   5   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ091>093-
100>103-115>118-129-131.


&&

$$

/78