670 FXUS64 KFWD 072029 AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 329 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015 .DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES...BUT THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS A SHORT WAVE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. CURRENTLY IT HAS JUST MADE ITS WAY INTO OKLAHOMA FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS FEATURE IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS NEAR WHATS LEFT OF A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY JUST OUTSIDE THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE MAIN THREAT THIS CONVECTION POSES TO NORTH TEXAS IS HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THAT BOUNDARY WILL END UP AND HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL ALONG IT. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. TONIGHT A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS...WHICH WILL HELP FIRE UP MORE CONVECTION. EXPANDED HIGHER POPS SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST...AND KEPT POPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THIS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY TONIGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS INDICATE SOME PRECIPITATION WILL FALL FROM SHERMAN TO DENTON TO THE METROPLEX OVERNIGHT. HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A ROW OF COUNTIES EAST INTO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. THE TRAINING OF STORMS OVERNIGHT IS ENOUGH OF A CONCERN TO ADD THE ADDITIONAL COUNTIES. THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL BE AN AREA TO KEEP AN EYE ON...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY IF IT MAKES IT THAT FAR SOUTH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN LOWERED A FEW DEGREES DUE TO ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTION WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NEXT DAY. THERE IS PRETTY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE CONVECTION WILL HAVE MOVED OUT OF NORTH TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. TIMING FOR THE WATCH WILL REMAIN THE SAME. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY HAVE BEEN LOWERED BY A FEW DEGREES...MOSTLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. BY THURSDAY A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN WILL RETURN WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD BACK IN...AND CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FORECAST IS DRY DURING THAT TIME...WITH A WARMING TEMPERATURE TREND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH. 78.JG && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 105 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/ /18Z TAFS/ MAIN CHALLENGES TODAY WILL CONCERN CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND ONSET OF MVFR CIGS TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONT NW OF THE AREA AND UPPER DISTURBANCE NEAR WICHITA FALLS WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT OVER THE AREA THE NEXT 24 HRS. CURRENT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO THE WEST HAS BEEN WEAKENING A BIT WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL WELL WEST OF THE AIRPORTS. LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 HIGH RES MODELS HAVE HANDLED THINGS THE BEST SO FAR...BUT NOT PERFECTLY BY ANY MEANS. WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND MESOSCALE PROCESSES ALOFT ARE NOT GIVING A STRONG INDICATION HOW...IF ANY COLD POOL INTERACTION WILL OCCUR AND BE ABLE TO SHIFT THE FRONT MUCH FARTHER SOUTHEAST. FOR NOW HELD CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TAF TRENDS OUTSIDE OF DELAYING VCTS TIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPEEDING UP THE ONSET OF MVFR CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. TRYING TO PIN DOWN BEST WINDOWS FOR CONVECTION WAS DIFFICULT AND WILL JUST HAVE TO PLAY THE WAIT AND SEE APPROACH THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON... BECOMING 10-15 KTS THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS INCREASING AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY ONCE AGAIN. 05/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 73 88 73 93 74 / 50 30 10 5 0 WACO, TX 74 92 73 93 74 / 10 5 0 5 0 PARIS, TX 73 88 71 91 70 / 40 20 10 5 0 DENTON, TX 72 84 72 92 71 / 70 50 10 5 0 MCKINNEY, TX 75 87 72 92 71 / 50 30 10 5 0 DALLAS, TX 73 88 74 94 75 / 40 20 10 5 0 TERRELL, TX 76 89 73 91 73 / 30 10 5 5 0 CORSICANA, TX 76 91 75 92 73 / 10 5 0 5 0 TEMPLE, TX 73 91 73 92 71 / 10 5 0 5 0 MINERAL WELLS, TX 70 85 71 91 69 / 80 50 10 5 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ091>093- 100>103-115>118-129-131. && $$ /78