504 
FXUS64 KLIX 051337
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
837 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE REPRESENTED IN THE SOUNDING
THIS MORNING. MIXED LAYER CAPE IS 2400 J/KG AND PW IS ABOVE
AVERAGE AT 1.96 INCHES. THERE COULD BE SOME FLOODING CONCERNS
WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS TODAY... ESPECIALLY IN SW MISSISSIPPI.
THERE IS A BIT OF DRY AIR ALOFT FROM ABOUT 900 TO 750 MB... WHICH
COULD TRANSLATE INTO A MICROBURST THREAT FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS TODAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE REACHED
TODAY AFTER A THIN MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER MIXES OUT LATER THIS
MORNING. 500 MB TEMP IS -10 C AND 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATE IS NEAR
7 C/KM. THE LAKE CHARLES SOUNDING HAS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PRESENT...
WHICH WILL BE REALIZED OVER PARTS OF OUR CWA. SOME STORMS TODAY
COULD BE SEVERE AND THE AREA HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK.
TREND IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH
STORMS FIRING TO THE SW OFF THE GULF AND OTHER CONVECTION MOVING
SOUTH FROM NORTHEAST LA AND WEST CENTRAL MS.

KRAUTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/ 

SHORT TERM...
WSR-88D SHOWING SOME SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. LOOKS
LIKE MOSTLY -RA PER THE OBSERVATIONS AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH.
THE RAIN IS A RESULT OF BEING AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND H5 DIFLUENT AREA AS THE SUBTLE
ENHANCED LIFT WAS ABLE TO SUSTAIN SOME RAIN ALONG A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR HANDLES THIS RAIN
WELL ON THE NORTHERN END HOWEVER OVERDOES THE RAIN ALONG THE
COAST. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
MODELS ALL AGREE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING KICKS IN. MOST AREAS WILL EASILY REACH THEIR
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES OF UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. OUGHT TO START
OFF WITH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN...GET SOME SUNSHINE
AROUND THE AREA BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND BEGINS. NOT SEEING QUITE THE
INSTABILITY AS YESTERDAY...HOWEVER WE DO REMAIN UNSTABLE. /KEG/

LONG TERM...
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE
WITH THE GFS A LITTLE MORE AGRESSIVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LOWERING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN. ALSO
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ACCORDINGLY AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
FEWER SHRA IMPACTING THE AREA. WENT WITH LOW TO MID 90S BY MID
WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN WITH THE GFS BUSTING IT UP WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT PATTERN...THE TROUGH WILL ACT AS FOCUS TO RAISE THE CHANCE
OF RAIN AFTER THIS WEEK. /KEG/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED SH/TS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS 
MORNING FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS. TS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN 
SHORTLY BEFORE THE 12Z PACKAGE IS RELEASED. MOST MORNING TS ACTIVITY 
SHOULD BE FOUND OVER MCB...HDC...ASD...GPT. THIS WILL MOVE EAST AND 
NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR NEW...MSY...HUM. 
BTR AND REMAINING TERMINALS WILL SEE TS ACTIVITY AS WELL DURING THE 
AFTERNOON AND WILL SHOW THIS IN 12Z PACK.

MARINE... 
BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE 
FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WILL DEVELOP OVER LAND 
AREAS AND MOVE INTO THE MARINE ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. PROTECTED 
WATER AREAS WILL SEE TS DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS JUST BEFORE 
SUNRISE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE RELATIVELY CLEAR OF TS 
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW NOCTUNAL SH/TS. WITH THE 
EXCEPTION BEING AROUND A TS TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE ON THE 
LOWER END ~10KT 2FT.

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE. 
DEPLOYED...NONE. 
ACTIVATION...NONE. 
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED  
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.  

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND 
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION 
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH 
         VISIBILITY EVENT 
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY 
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT 
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY         
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES 
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  87  72  91  73 /  60  30  20  10 
BTR  88  74  92  74 /  40  10  10  10 
ASD  88  73  91  74 /  50  20  20  10 
MSY  88  76  91  77 /  50  20  20  10 
GPT  86  76  87  77 /  50  30  20  10 
PQL  87  72  89  74 /  50  30  30  10 

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$