504 FXUS64 KLIX 051337 AFDLIX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 837 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 ...SOUNDING DISCUSSION... PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE REPRESENTED IN THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING. MIXED LAYER CAPE IS 2400 J/KG AND PW IS ABOVE AVERAGE AT 1.96 INCHES. THERE COULD BE SOME FLOODING CONCERNS WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS TODAY... ESPECIALLY IN SW MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS A BIT OF DRY AIR ALOFT FROM ABOUT 900 TO 750 MB... WHICH COULD TRANSLATE INTO A MICROBURST THREAT FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS TODAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE REACHED TODAY AFTER A THIN MID LEVEL CLOUD LAYER MIXES OUT LATER THIS MORNING. 500 MB TEMP IS -10 C AND 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATE IS NEAR 7 C/KM. THE LAKE CHARLES SOUNDING HAS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PRESENT... WHICH WILL BE REALIZED OVER PARTS OF OUR CWA. SOME STORMS TODAY COULD BE SEVERE AND THE AREA HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK. TREND IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH STORMS FIRING TO THE SW OFF THE GULF AND OTHER CONVECTION MOVING SOUTH FROM NORTHEAST LA AND WEST CENTRAL MS. KRAUTMANN && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/ SHORT TERM... WSR-88D SHOWING SOME SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY -RA PER THE OBSERVATIONS AS THE RAIN MOVES THROUGH. THE RAIN IS A RESULT OF BEING AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND H5 DIFLUENT AREA AS THE SUBTLE ENHANCED LIFT WAS ABLE TO SUSTAIN SOME RAIN ALONG A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR HANDLES THIS RAIN WELL ON THE NORTHERN END HOWEVER OVERDOES THE RAIN ALONG THE COAST. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. MODELS ALL AGREE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING KICKS IN. MOST AREAS WILL EASILY REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES OF UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. OUGHT TO START OFF WITH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN...GET SOME SUNSHINE AROUND THE AREA BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND BEGINS. NOT SEEING QUITE THE INSTABILITY AS YESTERDAY...HOWEVER WE DO REMAIN UNSTABLE. /KEG/ LONG TERM... BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE WITH THE GFS A LITTLE MORE AGRESSIVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LOWERING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN. ALSO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ACCORDINGLY AS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND FEWER SHRA IMPACTING THE AREA. WENT WITH LOW TO MID 90S BY MID WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN WITH THE GFS BUSTING IT UP WITH ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT PATTERN...THE TROUGH WILL ACT AS FOCUS TO RAISE THE CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER THIS WEEK. /KEG/ AVIATION... SCATTERED SH/TS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS. TS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY BEFORE THE 12Z PACKAGE IS RELEASED. MOST MORNING TS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOUND OVER MCB...HDC...ASD...GPT. THIS WILL MOVE EAST AND NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR NEW...MSY...HUM. BTR AND REMAINING TERMINALS WILL SEE TS ACTIVITY AS WELL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WILL SHOW THIS IN 12Z PACK. MARINE... BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN TO MAINTAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WILL DEVELOP OVER LAND AREAS AND MOVE INTO THE MARINE ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. PROTECTED WATER AREAS WILL SEE TS DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SHOULD BE RELATIVELY CLEAR OF TS DEVELOPMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW NOCTUNAL SH/TS. WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING AROUND A TS TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOWER END ~10KT 2FT. DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE....BLUE. DEPLOYED...NONE. ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE. DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH VISIBILITY EVENT YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 87 72 91 73 / 60 30 20 10 BTR 88 74 92 74 / 40 10 10 10 ASD 88 73 91 74 / 50 20 20 10 MSY 88 76 91 77 / 50 20 20 10 GPT 86 76 87 77 / 50 30 20 10 PQL 87 72 89 74 / 50 30 30 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. GM...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$