127 
FXUS61 KCLE 011736
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
136 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE 
REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE 
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND TO NEW YORK BY FRIDAY 
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY 
FRIDAY MORNING AND OVER CENTRAL OHIO BY FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS HAVE TAPPERED OFF IN THE EAST AS AN UL TROF AND ITS
LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY CLEAR THE AREA. CLEARING CAN BE OBSERVED
ACROSS NW INDIANA INTO SW OHIO ON VIS. SHOULD TRANSITION TO A
PARTLY SUNNY SKY BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST...AND MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON IN THE EAST. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS ARE NOT ALL THAT CONDUCTIVE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...SO REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER
FROM THE FORECAST. SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL BE ENDING ACROSS NEOH/NWPA
OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AS THE DEEP LAYER MEAN TROUGH AXIS
CONTINUES TO PUSH DOWNSTREAM INTO NY STATE. STRATUS WILL START TO
THIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND BY LATE EVENING...WE'LL MAKE A GO AT
PARTIAL CLEARING. FOG THAT DEVELOPED THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY IN
THE SOUTH...WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SMALL PERTURBATION OR KINK IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SLIDE EAST 
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS TRANSLATES INTO A 
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY 
REGION AND THEN EVENTUALLY INTO CENTRAL OHIO BY MID DAY FRIDAY. THIS 
FEATURE WILL SPREAD A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS 
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY 
NIGHT. EVENTUALLY...LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE GET EJECTED 
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

AIR MASS REMAINS STAGNANT ON THURSDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN 
TEMPERATURES BUT A BIT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE FRIDAY 
AND WILL BUMP TEMPERATURES UP NEAR 80 DEGREES. AS SURFACE RIDGE 
TRIES TO BUILD IN FOR SATURDAY...EXPECTING LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW AND 
SOME COOL AIR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE AND KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK 
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S THROUGH THE 
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE 
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. MONDAY THE WEAK RIDGE AND SURFACE 
HIGH BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHED FROM THE WNW. 
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE DAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE 
AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEST CHANCE WILL COME TUESDAY WITH THE 
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. HELD POPS TO HIGH CHANCE BUT MAY NEED 
TO INCREASE IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 
LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CIGS HAVE JUMPED TO VFR MOST LOCATIONS AND EXPECT THE FEW
REMAINING MVFR SITES TO FOLLOW THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO MOVE IN AT MID LEVELS. THE MIXING OF THE DAY SHOULD
HELP SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS TOWARD EVENING. WILL TRY TO MAKE SKIES
SCT FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SOME FOG AND
POSSIBLE STRATUS WILL DEVELOP INLAND OF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT. WILL
TAKE CIGS AND VSBYS BACK DOWN TO MVFR TOWARD DAYBREAK. W TO NW
FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH NE FLOW UNDER 10
KNOTS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.


OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY.  A COLD 
FRONT SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE LAKE BY 12Z TODAY. 
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ON THE LAKE AT ROUGHLY 10 TO
15 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY.  WEAK HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LAKE FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES 
INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO.  THE WEAK LOW WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHERN OHIO 
SATURDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY.  WINDS WILL REMAIN 
GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES
EXPECTED.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...TK