127 FXUS61 KCLE 011736 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 136 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND TO NEW YORK BY FRIDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING AND OVER CENTRAL OHIO BY FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SHOWERS HAVE TAPPERED OFF IN THE EAST AS AN UL TROF AND ITS LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY CLEAR THE AREA. CLEARING CAN BE OBSERVED ACROSS NW INDIANA INTO SW OHIO ON VIS. SHOULD TRANSITION TO A PARTLY SUNNY SKY BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE WEST...AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IN THE EAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS ARE NOT ALL THAT CONDUCTIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...SO REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST. SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL BE ENDING ACROSS NEOH/NWPA OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AS THE DEEP LAYER MEAN TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO PUSH DOWNSTREAM INTO NY STATE. STRATUS WILL START TO THIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND BY LATE EVENING...WE'LL MAKE A GO AT PARTIAL CLEARING. FOG THAT DEVELOPED THIS MORNING...PRIMARILY IN THE SOUTH...WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... SMALL PERTURBATION OR KINK IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS TRANSLATES INTO A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION AND THEN EVENTUALLY INTO CENTRAL OHIO BY MID DAY FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. EVENTUALLY...LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE GET EJECTED OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AIR MASS REMAINS STAGNANT ON THURSDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES BUT A BIT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE FRIDAY AND WILL BUMP TEMPERATURES UP NEAR 80 DEGREES. AS SURFACE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN FOR SATURDAY...EXPECTING LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW AND SOME COOL AIR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE AND KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. MONDAY THE WEAK RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHED FROM THE WNW. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE DAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEST CHANCE WILL COME TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. HELD POPS TO HIGH CHANCE BUT MAY NEED TO INCREASE IF MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CIGS HAVE JUMPED TO VFR MOST LOCATIONS AND EXPECT THE FEW REMAINING MVFR SITES TO FOLLOW THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN AT MID LEVELS. THE MIXING OF THE DAY SHOULD HELP SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS TOWARD EVENING. WILL TRY TO MAKE SKIES SCT FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SOME FOG AND POSSIBLE STRATUS WILL DEVELOP INLAND OF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT. WILL TAKE CIGS AND VSBYS BACK DOWN TO MVFR TOWARD DAYBREAK. W TO NW FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH NE FLOW UNDER 10 KNOTS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. OUTLOOK...VFR. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE LAKE BY 12Z TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ON THE LAKE AT ROUGHLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LAKE FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO. THE WEAK LOW WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHERN OHIO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SMALL CRAFT HEADLINES EXPECTED. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY NEAR TERM...MAYERS SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY LONG TERM...TK AVIATION...KUBINA MARINE...TK