125 
FXUS64 KFWD 012029
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
329 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE RIVER FLOODING FROM LAST
MONTH/S HEAVY RAIN. THE TRINITY RIVER IS IN THE PROCESS OF
CRESTING AT NEAR-RECORD FLOOD LEVELS FROM DALLAS
SOUTHEASTWARD...AND RESIDENTS NEAR THE RIVER SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST RIVER FORECASTS AND FLOOD STATEMENTS.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTS OF AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY AND A RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS...AND THIS WILL BE THE
GENERAL SET-UP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A FEW STORMS WILL
PROBABLY OCCUR WITHIN AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN AND
THIRD OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS ONE WEAK DISTURBANCE
DROPS SOUTH IN THE NORTH FLOW ALOFT. ANOTHER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW...WITH ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE WEST.

THE RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING 590 DAM BY THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING TEMPERATURES FROM NOW THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY WHEN
THE UPPER RIDGING APPEARS TO BE AT ITS STRONGEST. IT IS TEMPTING
TO FORECAST WARMER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT SINCE SOIL
MOISTURE WILL STILL HIGH WE WILL STICK FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.
LOW TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE QUITE WARM AS
WELL...WITH MOST OVERNIGHT LOW READINGS REMAINING IN THE 70S.

THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH DEEPENS IN
THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME LOW CHANCES OF RAIN TO RETURN
TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONT CREEPS SOUTH OF
THE RED RIVER. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT LEAST
THROUGH THE DAY 7 PERIOD...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD SOME LOW POPS IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1221 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015/

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION IS THE
PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE JUST EAST OF
AREA TAF SITES AS OF 17Z...PROMOTING LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN CHANCES AND FLIGHT CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TOMORROW...HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOMEWHAT LIGHT...SO DO NOT HAVE ANY MORNING MVFR STRATUS MENTIONED
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. DUE
TO LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN...EXPECT THAT IF ANY STORMS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...THEY WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTHWEST OF AREA
TAF SITES...CLOSER TO COMANCHE AND LAMPASAS THAN THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT...AND DISSIPATING WHILE
MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW MORNING. MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE DYNAMIC REMNANTS OF THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME EXPECT STORMS TO REMAIN WEST OF AREA
TAF SITES...SO DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THE END
OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL
IN LATER FORECASTS.

CAVANAUGH



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  63  86  68  88  70 /  10  10   5   5   5 
WACO, TX              62  87  67  88  68 /   5  10   5   5   5 
PARIS, TX             62  84  65  86  67 /   5  10   5   5   5 
DENTON, TX            64  85  68  87  68 /  10  10   5   5   5 
MCKINNEY, TX          63  85  65  87  67 /   5  10   5   5   5 
DALLAS, TX            64  86  68  89  70 /   5  10   5   5   5 
TERRELL, TX           62  86  66  87  68 /   5  10   5   5   5 
CORSICANA, TX         63  86  67  87  68 /   5  10   5   5   5 
TEMPLE, TX            63  87  67  88  68 /   5  10   5   5   5 
MINERAL WELLS, TX     64  87  67  88  68 /  10  20   5   5   5 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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