125 FXUS64 KFWD 012029 AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 329 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015 .DISCUSSION... THE PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE RIVER FLOODING FROM LAST MONTH/S HEAVY RAIN. THE TRINITY RIVER IS IN THE PROCESS OF CRESTING AT NEAR-RECORD FLOOD LEVELS FROM DALLAS SOUTHEASTWARD...AND RESIDENTS NEAR THE RIVER SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RIVER FORECASTS AND FLOOD STATEMENTS. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTS OF AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND A RIDGE OVER WEST TEXAS...AND THIS WILL BE THE GENERAL SET-UP FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A FEW STORMS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR WITHIN AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY OVER THE WESTERN AND THIRD OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS ONE WEAK DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTH IN THE NORTH FLOW ALOFT. ANOTHER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TOMORROW...WITH ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WEST. THE RIDGE WILL INTENSIFY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS APPROACHING 590 DAM BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING TEMPERATURES FROM NOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY WHEN THE UPPER RIDGING APPEARS TO BE AT ITS STRONGEST. IT IS TEMPTING TO FORECAST WARMER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT SINCE SOIL MOISTURE WILL STILL HIGH WE WILL STICK FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE. LOW TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE QUITE WARM AS WELL...WITH MOST OVERNIGHT LOW READINGS REMAINING IN THE 70S. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME LOW CHANCES OF RAIN TO RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONT CREEPS SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY 7 PERIOD...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD SOME LOW POPS IN FUTURE FORECASTS. 30 && .AVIATION... /ISSUED 1221 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015/ FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION IS THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE JUST EAST OF AREA TAF SITES AS OF 17Z...PROMOTING LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN CHANCES AND FLIGHT CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW...HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIGHT...SO DO NOT HAVE ANY MORNING MVFR STRATUS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. DUE TO LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN...EXPECT THAT IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...THEY WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTHWEST OF AREA TAF SITES...CLOSER TO COMANCHE AND LAMPASAS THAN THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT...AND DISSIPATING WHILE MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW MORNING. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE DYNAMIC REMNANTS OF THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME EXPECT STORMS TO REMAIN WEST OF AREA TAF SITES...SO DID NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT THE END OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL IN LATER FORECASTS. CAVANAUGH && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 63 86 68 88 70 / 10 10 5 5 5 WACO, TX 62 87 67 88 68 / 5 10 5 5 5 PARIS, TX 62 84 65 86 67 / 5 10 5 5 5 DENTON, TX 64 85 68 87 68 / 10 10 5 5 5 MCKINNEY, TX 63 85 65 87 67 / 5 10 5 5 5 DALLAS, TX 64 86 68 89 70 / 5 10 5 5 5 TERRELL, TX 62 86 66 87 68 / 5 10 5 5 5 CORSICANA, TX 63 86 67 87 68 / 5 10 5 5 5 TEMPLE, TX 63 87 67 88 68 / 5 10 5 5 5 MINERAL WELLS, TX 64 87 67 88 68 / 10 20 5 5 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 69/30