638 
FXUS64 KCRP 300918
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
418 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS
ON POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL. MCS
CURRENTLY NEAR THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
COASTAL BEND DIRECTLY...BUT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS
CONVECTION MAY REACH THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING. THAT BOUNDARY
COMBINED WITH A POSSIBLE SEABREEZE LOOKS TO BE A FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY LOOKS TO CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER SUPPORT ARRIVES. 00Z KCRP SOUNDING
SHOWS MARGINAL MOISTURE LEVELS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT WITH
CONTINUED SOIL SUPERSATURATION ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY
TRIGGER FLASH FLOODING. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE FFA AS
PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FROM 18Z TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN
CHANCES BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY
BEGINS TO DECAY AND UPPER SUPPORT SHIFTS EASTWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...BY SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS 
PROG PRECIP TO TAPER OFF FROM W TO E AS UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH 
SHIFTS E OF THE AREA AND RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD. MODELS KEEP 
SOME PRECIP IN THE FCST THRU MONDAY AS WEAK ILL-DEFINED BDRY LIFTS N 
OR WASHES OUT. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...MODELS PROG A 
PERSTENT RIDGE OVER MEX WHICH KEEPS A DEEP NLY FLOW ACROSS TX. THE 
RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER MID/UPPER LVLS ACROSS S TX...HOWEVER 
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLD CONVECTION 
ALONG AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE WEEK. 
OTHERWISE...MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS 
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT/MON DUE TO THE WEAK FRONTAL BDRY...THEN 
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A LIGHT NELY FLOW 
IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT/MON THEN BECOMING A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW BY 
TUE AND STRENGHTENING SLIGHTLY TO WEAK TO MOD BY MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    86  73  85  71  87  /  20  50  40  20  20 
VICTORIA          86  70  84  67  86  /  40  60  40  20  20 
LAREDO            91  72  89  71  91  /  20  40  40  10  10 
ALICE             89  72  86  69  89  /  20  50  40  20  20 
ROCKPORT          84  73  85  73  85  /  20  50  40  20  20 
COTULLA           89  71  85  69  89  /  40  50  40  10  10 
KINGSVILLE        88  72  85  70  88  /  20  50  40  20  20 
NAVY CORPUS       84  74  84  75  86  /  20  40  40  20  20 

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY 
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...
     DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE 
     OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...
     VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

JV/71...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM