638 FXUS64 KCRP 300918 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 418 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS ON POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL. MCS CURRENTLY NEAR THE EDWARDS PLATEAU IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE COASTAL BEND DIRECTLY...BUT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS CONVECTION MAY REACH THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING. THAT BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH A POSSIBLE SEABREEZE LOOKS TO BE A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER SUPPORT ARRIVES. 00Z KCRP SOUNDING SHOWS MARGINAL MOISTURE LEVELS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT WITH CONTINUED SOIL SUPERSATURATION ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL MAY TRIGGER FLASH FLOODING. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE FFA AS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FROM 18Z TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY BEGINS TO DECAY AND UPPER SUPPORT SHIFTS EASTWARD. && .LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...BY SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS PROG PRECIP TO TAPER OFF FROM W TO E AS UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS E OF THE AREA AND RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD. MODELS KEEP SOME PRECIP IN THE FCST THRU MONDAY AS WEAK ILL-DEFINED BDRY LIFTS N OR WASHES OUT. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...MODELS PROG A PERSTENT RIDGE OVER MEX WHICH KEEPS A DEEP NLY FLOW ACROSS TX. THE RIDGE WILL BRING DRIER MID/UPPER LVLS ACROSS S TX...HOWEVER SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLD CONVECTION ALONG AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT/MON DUE TO THE WEAK FRONTAL BDRY...THEN GRADUAL WARMING TREND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A LIGHT NELY FLOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT/MON THEN BECOMING A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW BY TUE AND STRENGHTENING SLIGHTLY TO WEAK TO MOD BY MID WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 86 73 85 71 87 / 20 50 40 20 20 VICTORIA 86 70 84 67 86 / 40 60 40 20 20 LAREDO 91 72 89 71 91 / 20 40 40 10 10 ALICE 89 72 86 69 89 / 20 50 40 20 20 ROCKPORT 84 73 85 73 85 / 20 50 40 20 20 COTULLA 89 71 85 69 89 / 40 50 40 10 10 KINGSVILLE 88 72 85 70 88 / 20 50 40 20 20 NAVY CORPUS 84 74 84 75 86 / 20 40 40 20 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN... DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO... VICTORIA...WEBB. GM...NONE. && $$ JV/71...SHORT TERM TE/81...LONG TERM