600 
FXUS62 KMLB 090818
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
415 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT... SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL 
REMAIN THE PRIMARY WX FEATURE FOR CENTRAL FL...MAINTAINING DRY AND 
STABLE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...ANA'S DIRECT INFLUENCE WILL GRADUALLY 
WANE AS A BLOCKING RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NE GOMEX TO THE NEW 
ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOWS ANA TO MOVE ONSHORE 
NEAR THE SC/NC BORDER BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVNG. 

AS ANA DRIFTS OUT OF OUR DIRECT SPHERE OF INFLUENCE...THE ATLC RIDGE 
AXIS...TRACES OF WHICH CAN BE SEEN IN THE H100-H70 WIND FIELD OVER 
THE FL STRAITS/NRN BAHAMAS...WILL GRADUALLY REORGANIZE AND REBUILD 
OVER S FL. IN THE INTERIM...HOWEVER...THE LCL PGRAD WILL REMAIN 
QUITE LOOSE WITH MEAN FLOW THRU THE H100-H85 LYR GENERALLY AOB 5KTS. 
THIS ALL BUT GUARANTEES THE FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE 
BY MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH NEAR FULL SUN EXPECTED AND INTERIOR 
TEMPS APPROACHING THE 90F MARK...COASTAL TEMPS IN THE M80S.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON ANA'S SW FLANK HAS SUFFICIENTLY INCREASED RH 
ACRS CENTRAL FL IN BOTH THE H100-H70 AND H85-H50 LYRS TO SQUEEZE OUT 
AN ISOLD SHRA OR TWO BY LATE AFTN AS THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA 
BREEZES MERGE. HOWEVER...WHAT LITTLE PRECIP DOES OCCUR WILL BE FAR 
MORE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE AND IN THE FORM OF BRIEF LIGHT TO 
MODERATE SHRAS AS THE DEEP LYR NW FLOW REGIME GENERATED BY ANA IS 
HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION IN CENTRAL FL. 

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S OVERNIGHT AS THE ATLC RIDGE REBUILDS. 
HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND LINGERING SUPPRESSION 
ON ANA'S LEFT FLANK OF ANA...THE LCL AIRMASS WILL BE TOO STABLE TO 
SUPPORT ANY PRECIP PAST SUNSET...FCST WILL BE DRY. LIGHT SRLY WINDS 
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS IN THE M/U60S OVER THE INTERIOR AND 
U60S/L70S ALONG THE COAST. 

SUN/SUN NIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REBUILD BACK 
ACROSS THE PENINSULA AS ANA LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE COASTAL 
CAROLINAS. IN RESPONSE...OUR LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY 
WHICH WILL CAUSE MOISTURE LEVELS TO INCREASE A BIT WITH PRECIPITABLE 
WATER VALUES REACHING 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES. WITH DAYTIME HEATING... 
EXPECT ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD FORM STARTING 
IN THE SOUTH BY MID DAY AND WORK NORTHWARD. HIGHEST COVERAGE SHOULD 
BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE 
ELSEWHERE. SW STEERING FLOW WILL BRING SOME OF THE CONVECTION BACK 
TO THE EAST COAST SUN EVENING SO WILL CARRY SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS FOR 
THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS...30 PERCENT.

MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S INLAND AND UPPER 80S AT THE COAST 
WITH MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

MON-FRI...THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS REBUILDING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH FL 
WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY WX FEATURE THIS NEXT WEEK.  THE WX PATTERN 
WILL BE DRIVEN BY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WITH 
HIGHER POPS (30-40 PERCENT) OVER THE INTERIOR GIVEN THE RATHER DEEP 
E/SE FLOW. MAX TEMPS NEAR CLIMO (MID 80S COAST/UPPER 80S INLAND) 
WITH MIN TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW 70S). 

&&

.AVIATION...THRU 10/06Z SFC WINDS: THRU 09/14Z...VRBL 2-4KTS. BTWN 
09/14Z-09/16Z...W/NW 4-7KTS BCMG NE. BTWN 09/16Z-09/24Z...E/NE 8-
12KTS. BTWN 10/10Z-10/03Z...BCMG S/SE 3-5KTS. 
 
VSBYS/WX/CIGS...VFR. 

&&

.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA WILL DRIFT ONSHORE 
NEAR THE  SC/NC BORDER ARND SUNSET THIS EVNG...ALLOWING THE ATLC 
RIDGE TO REBUILD OVER THE S FL PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. WEAK PGRAD WILL 
RESULT IN A LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW THRU SUNRISE...BCMG E/NE ARND 
10KTS BY MIDDAY AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DLVPS AND PUSHES 
INLAND...THEN TO THE S OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS N. WAVE 
HEIGHTS WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY WITH SEAS RUNNING 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-
4FT OFFSHORE...ALMOST ALL OF WHICH IS DUE TO SWELL GENERATED BY ANA. 
SEAS UP TO 5FT IN THE GULF STREAM. WAVE MODELS CONTINUE A LITTLE 
SHORT WITH DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS...WILL KEEP THEM IN ARND 9SEC.

SUN-WED...THE AXIS OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD 
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND CAUSE A SOUTHEAST/SOUTH 
WIND FLOW TO SET UP. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT AROUND 10 
KNOTS BUT THE DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL ACCELERATE SPEEDS TO 
NEAR 15 KNOTS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE 
MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING... 
MAINLY SUN/MON WHILE SOUTH SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW CONTINUES. THEN 
BY TUE/WED...DAYTIME HEATING STORMS SHOULD STAY OVER THE MAINLAND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  84  68  89  71 /  10  10  20  20 
MCO  90  68  91  71 /  10  10  20  20 
MLB  84  70  87  74 /  10  10  20  30 
VRB  85  69  88  71 /  10  10  20  30 
LEE  90  69  92  72 /  10  10  20  10 
SFB  90  69  91  72 /  10  10  20  20 
ORL  90  70  91  72 /  10  10  20  20 
FPR  86  70  88  72 /  10  10  20  30 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....KELLY