600 FXUS62 KMLB 090818 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 415 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2015 .DISCUSSION... TODAY-TONIGHT... SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY WX FEATURE FOR CENTRAL FL...MAINTAINING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...ANA'S DIRECT INFLUENCE WILL GRADUALLY WANE AS A BLOCKING RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NE GOMEX TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOWS ANA TO MOVE ONSHORE NEAR THE SC/NC BORDER BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVNG. AS ANA DRIFTS OUT OF OUR DIRECT SPHERE OF INFLUENCE...THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS...TRACES OF WHICH CAN BE SEEN IN THE H100-H70 WIND FIELD OVER THE FL STRAITS/NRN BAHAMAS...WILL GRADUALLY REORGANIZE AND REBUILD OVER S FL. IN THE INTERIM...HOWEVER...THE LCL PGRAD WILL REMAIN QUITE LOOSE WITH MEAN FLOW THRU THE H100-H85 LYR GENERALLY AOB 5KTS. THIS ALL BUT GUARANTEES THE FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BY MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH NEAR FULL SUN EXPECTED AND INTERIOR TEMPS APPROACHING THE 90F MARK...COASTAL TEMPS IN THE M80S. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON ANA'S SW FLANK HAS SUFFICIENTLY INCREASED RH ACRS CENTRAL FL IN BOTH THE H100-H70 AND H85-H50 LYRS TO SQUEEZE OUT AN ISOLD SHRA OR TWO BY LATE AFTN AS THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES MERGE. HOWEVER...WHAT LITTLE PRECIP DOES OCCUR WILL BE FAR MORE THE EXCEPTION THAN THE RULE AND IN THE FORM OF BRIEF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHRAS AS THE DEEP LYR NW FLOW REGIME GENERATED BY ANA IS HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION IN CENTRAL FL. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S OVERNIGHT AS THE ATLC RIDGE REBUILDS. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND LINGERING SUPPRESSION ON ANA'S LEFT FLANK OF ANA...THE LCL AIRMASS WILL BE TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIP PAST SUNSET...FCST WILL BE DRY. LIGHT SRLY WINDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS IN THE M/U60S OVER THE INTERIOR AND U60S/L70S ALONG THE COAST. SUN/SUN NIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REBUILD BACK ACROSS THE PENINSULA AS ANA LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. IN RESPONSE...OUR LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY WHICH WILL CAUSE MOISTURE LEVELS TO INCREASE A BIT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES. WITH DAYTIME HEATING... EXPECT ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD FORM STARTING IN THE SOUTH BY MID DAY AND WORK NORTHWARD. HIGHEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. SW STEERING FLOW WILL BRING SOME OF THE CONVECTION BACK TO THE EAST COAST SUN EVENING SO WILL CARRY SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS FOR THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS...30 PERCENT. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER 90S INLAND AND UPPER 80S AT THE COAST WITH MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. MON-FRI...THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS REBUILDING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH FL WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY WX FEATURE THIS NEXT WEEK. THE WX PATTERN WILL BE DRIVEN BY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WITH HIGHER POPS (30-40 PERCENT) OVER THE INTERIOR GIVEN THE RATHER DEEP E/SE FLOW. MAX TEMPS NEAR CLIMO (MID 80S COAST/UPPER 80S INLAND) WITH MIN TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW 70S). && .AVIATION...THRU 10/06Z SFC WINDS: THRU 09/14Z...VRBL 2-4KTS. BTWN 09/14Z-09/16Z...W/NW 4-7KTS BCMG NE. BTWN 09/16Z-09/24Z...E/NE 8- 12KTS. BTWN 10/10Z-10/03Z...BCMG S/SE 3-5KTS. VSBYS/WX/CIGS...VFR. && .MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA WILL DRIFT ONSHORE NEAR THE SC/NC BORDER ARND SUNSET THIS EVNG...ALLOWING THE ATLC RIDGE TO REBUILD OVER THE S FL PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. WEAK PGRAD WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW THRU SUNRISE...BCMG E/NE ARND 10KTS BY MIDDAY AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DLVPS AND PUSHES INLAND...THEN TO THE S OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS N. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY WITH SEAS RUNNING 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3- 4FT OFFSHORE...ALMOST ALL OF WHICH IS DUE TO SWELL GENERATED BY ANA. SEAS UP TO 5FT IN THE GULF STREAM. WAVE MODELS CONTINUE A LITTLE SHORT WITH DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS...WILL KEEP THEM IN ARND 9SEC. SUN-WED...THE AXIS OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND CAUSE A SOUTHEAST/SOUTH WIND FLOW TO SET UP. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT AROUND 10 KNOTS BUT THE DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL ACCELERATE SPEEDS TO NEAR 15 KNOTS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING... MAINLY SUN/MON WHILE SOUTH SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW CONTINUES. THEN BY TUE/WED...DAYTIME HEATING STORMS SHOULD STAY OVER THE MAINLAND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 84 68 89 71 / 10 10 20 20 MCO 90 68 91 71 / 10 10 20 20 MLB 84 70 87 74 / 10 10 20 30 VRB 85 69 88 71 / 10 10 20 30 LEE 90 69 92 72 / 10 10 20 10 SFB 90 69 91 72 / 10 10 20 20 ORL 90 70 91 72 / 10 10 20 20 FPR 86 70 88 72 / 10 10 20 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BRAGAW LONG TERM....KELLY