283 
FXUS63 KILX 251105
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
605 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE 
PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. MODELS ARE RELATIVELY 
CONSISTENT IN TRACKING THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF 
THE FORECAST AREA ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO 
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TODAY. MODELS FROM THE 00Z SUITE CONTINUE TO 
REFLECT THAT EVEN OUR SE IL COUNTIES SHOULD REMAIN IN COOL 
SECTOR...SUGGESTING THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE FROM HAIL AND 
POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT 
THE THREATENED AREA DEVELOPS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE PROGRESS 
OF THE FRONT AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG 
AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. BULK SHEAR 0-6KM OF 40-50 KTS IS 
FORECAST FOR SOUTH OF I-70. 

PERIODS OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY 
GIVEN OUR POSITION WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONT. BEST LIFT EVIDENT 
BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. WITH VERY MOIST FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE AREA 
(SHV SOUNDING FROM 25/00Z HAD 1.84 IN. OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WHICH 
IS NEAR THE RECORD LEVEL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) RAINFALL AMOUNTS 
WILL LIKELY EXCEED AN INCH THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. 
PRECIPITATION AND ABUNDANT CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

HAVE LIMITED EVENING THUNDER CHANCES TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE 
FORECAST AREA...AS SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE SLIDING ACROSS THE SOUTH 
TIP OF THE STATE BY THAT POINT. OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES TO QUICKLY 
ERODE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY.

PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT 
WEEK...AS AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO 
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER SPINS OVER NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FROM SUNDAY 
THROUGH TUESDAY. LONGER RANGE MODELS KEEP THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE 
SOUTHERN LOW SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. HOWEVER, A 
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND THE NORTH CENTRAL 
U.S. WILL BE ENTERING THE MIDWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING. A SMALL PIECE 
OF ENERGY MAY CUT OFF IN THIS WAVE...BUT THERE IS NOT GOOD AGREEMENT 
IN THE MODELS AS TO WHERE AND HOW STRONG. THE ECMWF IS WETTEST AND 
MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE WAVE AND PINCHES OFF A LOW IN THE TROUGH 
OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS AND 
CANADIAN MODELS DO THIS ABOUT 18 HOURS EARLIER IN SOUTHWEST 
MINNESOTA. ENSEMBLES DO NOT SHOW MUCH AGREEMENT EITHER...SO WILL 
KEEP WEDNESDAY DRY AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE BASICALLY REPRESENTS 
THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO 
BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS 
TREND WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DURING MID TO LATE 
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED TO FINALLY RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SCATTERED HEAVIER PRECIP OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO
FILL IN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH
LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION. NAM TIME
HEIGHTS INDICATE STRONG DEEP LIFT FOR A PERIOD THIS MORNING WHICH
SHOULD INCREASE RAINFALL RATES AND PLAY HAVOC WITH CIGS. WILL KEEP
PREDOMINATE CIGS MVFR FOR NOW. AS THE WARM FRONT SOUTHWEST OF THE
TERMINALS BEGINS TO SURGE NORTH MAY HAVE LOWERING CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE MAIN PRECIP AREA. WILL TRY TO TREND THIS
POSSIBILITY WITH SO MUCH UNCERTIANTY BY KEEPING MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS IN PLACE THOUGH THERE COULD BE SPOTS WHERE IFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ONCE THE MAIN WAVE PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT MAY
BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TONIGHT TO LIMIT ANY BR VSBY DROPS.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARKER
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...BARKER